2025-11-15 01:17:50
Happy Friday. There is a lot below after writing a lot this week and it has been a while since I sent out a Signal. Enjoy.
Spyglass Signal is a newsletter featuring links and commentary from M.G. Siegler on timely topics found around the web.
💸 Apple's Mini Cut From Mini Apps – While the concept of "mini apps" aren't new from a classification standpoint for Apple (they've been called out in the guidelines since 2017), this is the first time they get their own monetization distinction: a 15% cut. Obviously, this comes from Apple agreeing with Tencent for WeChat mini games, but rather than keep it a China-only rule, they're opening it up – perhaps to continue to alleviate the pressure on the overall App Store cut. What was once a simple (but silly) 70/30 cut is now fractured into about a hundred different pieces and rules. Can we just shift to 80/20 (and 90/10 for small devs)? That's effectively what Google has agreed to do (thanks to Epic). Though, to be fair, they were dealt even more of a losing hand thanks to being "open". Apple, it seems, will continue to fight the losing battle. [TechCrunch]
🍿 The Battle for Warner Bros (and HBO) – With the initial bids due next week, it's shaping up to be Paramount vs. Comcast vs. Netflix. Paramount continues to have the first-mover advantage and the fact that they're willing to buy the entire company whereas Comcast and Netflix are said to just want the studio and streamer. But WBD also keeps rejecting their offers, clearly wanting to entice a bidding war – or perhaps prolong what seems inevitable so that David Zaslav can execute his splitting of the company in two and get some sort of bonus and perhaps better price. And if he can last that long, might Apple be lurking? Regardless, David Ellison is already making the case that Paramount Skydance is the only company that will be able to get this past the regulatory goalie. He knows a guy or two... But Comcast is also clearly polishing their golden trinkets to present... Wild that Netflix is this far along, in the data room and in the running, but hard to see them doing this deal. (Though certainly they can make a better case than the rest of Big Tech – to Wall Street, at least.) [WSJ 🔒]
🚗 Telsa + Apple CarPlay – There's seemingly a few things going on here. First and foremost, Tesla clearly needs a way to spur sales and they clearly think CarPlay could help. And that's wild considering how many of the automakers are going the other way, and pulling support for such systems because they're worried about handing the keys to Apple or Google (or just want to build their own software, which they always all suck at). At the same time, tensions may be starting to thaw between Elon and Apple – App Store silliness aside – we're now a long way from Apple's own (failed) car project and after some turbulence around Starlink + iPhones, they might be on the verge of working together there too. Personally, I wouldn't buy a car without CarPlay – it's just infinitely more convenient to use (assuming you're an iPhone user) than any shitty system a car manufacturer can draw up – even Tesla. You hear that, Rivian? [Bloomberg 🔒]
M.G. Siegler
For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
For members of The Inner Ring ⭕️🔒
"One AI bubble has already burst — the bubble in saying there’s a bubble."
– The opening of a Deutsche Bank report from September, noting that Google Searches for the term "AI Bubble" had collapsed.
Well, so much for that! Queries for the term exploded higher than ever in October and that is continuing into November.
And now we have that very same bank exploring ways to hedge their data center exposure! Life comes at you fast – especially when AI is involved.
Below, members of The Inner Ring will find thoughts on:
• Thinking Machines at $50B
• Apple Bundling MLS into Apple TV
• Michael Burry's Bubble Bet
• 'Toy Story 5' Goes After the iPad
• and more...
2025-11-14 04:45:58
Without question, one of the most fascinating dynamics of the past few years has been the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI. Drama aside, at the highest level, one of the largest companies in the world made one of the best investments in history. I mean that both monetarily (at least on paper) but also in terms of how it positioned Microsoft perfectly as one of the key players in what many believe to be the most important industry going forward – and perhaps ever: AI.
While much has been made about Satya Nadella being spooked by "The Blip" – the weekend where Sam Altman temporarily fell victim to a coup at OpenAI – and that clearly kicked off a series of events which saw Microsoft start to hedge their bet, it felt like that could have and perhaps should have been water under the bridge given OpenAI's continued growth and increasing prominence as the most important company in AI. At the highest level, that's why it has always felt so wild to me that Microsoft would not only be okay with creating more distance between the two companies, but was clearly pushing for it. This was a relationship that anyone in tech would kill for – or certainly pay any amount of money for, and they were! But instead of bear-hugging OpenAI and keeping everyone else at arm's length, Microsoft was basically saying "nah, we're good." Satya was famously good for his $80B, but not a penny more. Sorry Sam. How about an intro to Masa Son?
Obviously, there is a strategy here beyond simply fear or spite. But what was Microsoft thinking? As it turns out, all you had to do was ask Satya.
To be clear, in his appearance on The Dwarkesh Podcast, Nadella doesn't exactly come out and give a direct answer to the above. But thanks to some good lines of questioning from Dwarkesh Patel and his co-host for the episode, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, it sure feels like we can triangulate enough data points to arrive at some answers...
2025-11-13 02:56:30
The most surprising element of Yann LeCun's reported exit from Meta is that he stayed as long as he did. Once Mark Zuckerberg swiftly executed his $14.3B hard reset of the company's AI efforts in June with the "hackquistion" of Scale.ai, the writing was on the wall – or at least, all over Meta's internal Workplace Chat, I suppose.
2025-11-12 18:42:35
My first instinct – I think everyone's first instinct – was to poke fun at this project. Part of it is that many of us are waiting, hoping, for a One More Thing™ announcement from Apple before the holidays in the form of new Apple TVs, HomePods, and AirTags – all three with nice last-minute-gift potential. Instead, we got a sock. An insanely expensive sock. A piece of fabric more expensive than any of the three aforementioned consumer hardware products. This is hardly a stocking stuffer, it's more like the stocking you would use if your stuffers were diamonds. In that context, this almost seems like a lump of coal.
But actually...
Having thought about it a bit more – yes, after retweeting a Borat banana hammock dunk – I think I'll take the other side here. No, the Issey Miyake-designed 'iPhone Pocket' is not a product for most people, but something like it increasingly seems to be. Further, this is actually a very Apple-like collaboration. How quickly we forget the history here.
It’s no secret that one of Steve Jobs’s favorite fashion designers was Issey Miyake. The former Apple CEO adopted the Japanese designer’s minimal black turtlenecks as part of the iconic uniform he wore on Keynote stages around the world, though apart from a mutual respect—and the facts that Miyake once appeared in Apple’s Think Different campaign and almost designed an Apple uniform—the duo never officially collaborated.
Until now. This month, Apple releases a collaboration with Issey Miyake, marking the tech brand’s first union with a fashion house since the Apple Watch Hermès in 2015. The product? A curious-looking rectangle of 3D-knitted fabric known as the iPhone Pocket. Robust and cushioned, with stretchy pleats true to Issey Miyake’s iconic Pleats Please design, the accessory is designed to snugly hold any model of iPhone (as well as small essentials like AirPods or a chapstick).
That's right, if you know the iconic Steve Jobs' turtleneck, you know Miyake. And if you know that, you undoubtedly do know that he really did almost design uniforms for Apple – this was all in Walter Isaacson's Steve Jobs biography, as relayed by Wynne Davis for NPR back in 2022 following the news of Miyake's passing:
Isaacson details how the idea for an Apple uniform came from a trip to Japan in the 1980s when Jobs visited Sony and saw that all workers in the factories were wearing matching uniforms. Jobs asked Akio Morita, then the chairman of Sony, about it.
"He looked very ashamed and told me that after the war, no one had any clothes, and companies like Sony had to give their workers something to wear each day," Jobs said.
Miyake had worked with Sony to create a taupe nylon jacket that easily converted into a vest courtesy of removable sleeves. Isaacson wrote that the uniforms became part of Sony's "signature style" and "it became a way of bonding workers to the company."
"I decided that I wanted that type of bonding for Apple," Jobs said. "So I called Issey and asked him to design a vest for Apple. I came back with some samples and told everyone it would be great if we would all wear these vests. Oh man, did I get booed off the stage. Everybody hated the idea."
Yeah, that clearly never happened. But it did lead to Jobs' friendship with Miyake and that other, more informal uniform:
"So I asked Issey to make me some of his black turtlenecks that I liked, and he made me like a hundred of them," Jobs said, adding that it was enough to last him the rest of his life.
Sadly, that turned out to be true as Jobs passed away a decade before Miyake did.1 Anyway, in that light, this collaboration is a nice homage to both men. And this wasn't just Apple fully outsourcing the project to the Miyake team, Apple's team collaborated on the project as well – the industrial design team, no less.
"It was like a jazz session. Everyone brainstormed and asked, ‘how can we develop it further?’, ‘should we take it in this direction or that?"
This seems like exactly the type of project Jony Ive would have relished taking up, were he not busy making buttons – a very real and very cool LoveFrom project with Moncler – and, you know, potentially an anti-iPhone device, which will never not be awkward.
And yes, this certainly calls back to Apple's iPod Socks – a product Jobs himself announced two decades ago and many thought was a joke. It was not, and actually these are now remembered at least somewhat fondly. Perhaps it's nostalgia or perhaps it was the fact that you got a six pack – in an Apple rainbow of colors – for $29. Which, as Craig Grannell points out for Stuff, is more like $50 in today's money, but still a far cry from $150, let alone $230 – the two price points for a single iPhone Pocket. Times change. Socks change.
To that end, I think the most important/interesting aspect of this product is actually the continuing trend of turning the iPhone into a wearable. What started with arm bands for runners back in the day is now more of a daily wearable strap for many people, it seems. Hence, Apple releasing their own iPhone Crossbody Strap for the first time this year.
The longer version of the iPhone Pocket is similar to that – though not as practical, as you still have to take the iPhone out of the Pocket to use it. Still, people are clearly clamoring to wear their iPhones more, rather than put them in a pocket or purse. It's another accessory and a way to splash some color upon your outfit. To make your own uniform, in a way.
I'll admit that while I bought a Crossbody Strap to try out, I'm still not sold. I find it awkward to use, having to constantly shift the strap depending on if you're letting it fall to your side or if you're trying to actually use it while walking.2 I'm sure I'm simply wearing it wrong.3
And, not to sound overtly sexist, but something about such an accessory still seems more oriented towards women who perhaps prefer not to carry an increasingly massive smartphone in their pants pockets – if they even have them – or in a smaller purse, where it may not fit. Perhaps that morphs over time – certainly if these devices keep growing in size! – perhaps not. But this is at least somewhat of a bet in the trend towards wearing your phone versus pocketing it.
While this is where I normally bring up the Seinfeld gag about the "European Carry-All", my mind is actually going towards another bit from the show: George Costanza's wallet. I'm old enough to remember when men would largely put their wallets in their back pants pocket – I even did that as a kid, following my father's lead. Boy how times change – these days, in particular if you live/visit a big city, it would seem insane to put your wallet in such a place. The perfect target for pickpockets. Well that and the overall trend to move more of what was in your wallet into your smartphone.
"Important things go in a case!" George Costanza might actually like the iPhone Pocket! Though probably not the price...
One more thing: if nothing else, how could you not love this bit about the iPhone Pocket from Clarke's piece for Vogue:
Faithful to Apple’s history of paper engineering, the packaging comes with ceremony—and a Japanese twist. The long, frosted paper that contains the iPhone Pocket was inspired by the rice paper candy bags used for a Japanese children’s festival where long sweets are given to symbolize prayers for a healthy life ahead. For Miyamae, it evokes a childlike sense of excitement and anticipation: “The idea is that you’re opening a gift that’s full of candy.”
That alone almost makes me want to get one. Almost.
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
1 The one time I met Steve Jobs, just a few months before his death, he was indeed wearing his Miyake-designed uniform. ↩
2 I'm trying to still be able to put it in my pocket with the strap on, which is undoubtedly overkill. But actually, I'm mainly trying it not for fashion but for function: I had an iPhone swiped right out of my hand while walking, so this strap gives me more peace of mind, if nothing else. ↩
3 The new "you're holding it wrong." ↩
2025-11-12 01:30:08
When the history of AI is written – perhaps by AI – OpenAI and Anthropic are destined to be inextricably linked. The leaders of the latter emerged from the former, of course. And ever since then, they've seemingly been on the same general road, racing towards building the future of AI. But what started as philosophical differences around how to build towards that future – hence, the split – has grown into both product and practical ones as well over time. While both companies are still growing at incredible rates, their businesses are also seemingly about to diverge...
2025-11-11 19:25:45
The iPhone Air was always going to be a bit of a risk for Apple. Yes, it looks great and yes it feels great in hand, but it didn't seem like those two elements would be enough to overcome the fact that it's very much an "in-between" iPhone. That is, it exists squarely in the middle of the two actually most important elements of the device: it's neither the best iPhone or the least expensive iPhone. And sure enough:
Apple is delaying the release of next year’s version of the iPhone Air, its thinnest smartphone, after the first model sold below expectations, according to three people involved in the project.
Although the length of the delay remains uncertain, the product won’t be released in fall 2026 as previously planned, they said. Apple has already sharply scaled back production of the first version, according to multiple people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The writing was on the wall here from the get-go, when early shipping time checks made it seem like the device was still widely available after launch. This seemingly indicated that either Apple produced too many or demand wasn't there – or both.1
It will be interesting if Apple attempts to push back on this report at all – perhaps on background to other more friendly publications? Maybe there will be some casual comment that the device was never meant to be on a yearly cadence? They could even point to the fact that it was called the 'iPhone Air' and not the 'iPhone 17 Air' – which led to immediate speculation that it wouldn't be on a yearly release cycle. As I wrote after the unveiling:
The worst kept secret in Cupertino (this year) is here: iPhone Air. Notably, it's not 'iPhone 17 Air', just 'iPhone Air' which stands out in the line up with iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. And it leads to the obvious question if Apple views this as a one-off design, perhaps if it doesn't sell well? That seems unlikely, so perhaps they'd just do an 'iPhone Air 2' next year? But that would be a bit awkward and confusing if they stick with the standard naming schemes for the other iPhones – i.e. do I buy an iPhone 18, an iPhone 18 Pro, or an iPhone Air 2 next year? Then again, next year should also see the 'iPhone Fold' introduced, so perhaps we're slowly moving away from the bigger numbers, which were always untenable at some point. Were we really going to get an 'iPhone 37' in 2045?
Yeah, if nothing else, the naming scheme gives them some flexibility here...
Regardless, it's hard to combat this from Ma and Liu's report:
Foxconn, one of two companies that assembles the iPhone Air for Apple, has dismantled all but one and a half of its production lines for the first version and expects to halt all production by the end of the month, according to a person with direct knowledge of the situation. Luxshare, the other company that assembles the device, halted all production at the end of October, according to people with direct knowledge of the developments. In contrast, Foxconn and Luxshare have dedicated dozens of production lines to top-selling models like the iPhone 17 Pro.
As the report notes, this would be yet another "other" version of the iPhone that Apple has failed to make work in the market. This dates back to the iPhone 5c days – Jony Ive's super colorful iPhones – and continued through the iPhone mini. Consumers, it seems, really may just want either the "best" or the "affordable" when it comes to the device. But Apple isn't giving up all hope, it seems:
Apple has stopped short of canceling the next iPhone Air, internally code-named V62, and some Apple engineers and manufacturing partners are still working on it, the people said. It’s possible the product is undergoing a significant redesign, and one person said Apple could still release the second-generation iPhone Air as soon as spring 2027 alongside the standard iPhone 18 and budget-friendly 18e. Apple is permanently shaking up its annual iPhone release schedule so that it debuts cheaper models in the spring and more expensive models in the fall.
Of course, this also shouldn't be too surprising as much of the work on the 'iPhone Air 2' is presumably already locked and loaded in order to have it ready for what would have been a Fall 2026 release. Certainly, Apple can postpone that release, as now seems to be the case, but cancelling it would be a waste of a lot of work. Sunk cost fallacy and all that, but it probably makes sense to give it at least one more go? Especially if, just as was the case with the MacBook Air lineup originally,2 Apple intends the new model as a "testing ground" of sorts for new designs and technologies that will eventually come to the broader lineup...
Further, staggering the release to be "off-cycle" might make a lot of sense (and more sense than shifting the "regular" iPhone to the Spring – see update below). The one surprise to me about the iPhone Air at launch was that it was actually more of an 'iPhone Pro' model than a 'standard' iPhone model. This would seemingly set it up well to sit alongside the iPhone 'e' models – the actual "cheapest" iPhone – in the Spring.
So next year, you could have this:
Fall 2026:
Spring 2027:
The wild card here, of course, is the 'iPhone Fold' – yes, yet another attempt at a new iPhone model. The disappointing sales of the iPhone Air may at least give Apple some pause as to how they position the device, but it too is undoubtedly full-steam ahead right now leading up to the Fall 2026 release. And unlike the Air, the Fold shouldn't be "in-between" but rather, it should be more extreme when it comes to price, likely $1,999 or more to start, pushing the iPhone Pro models into the middle in that regard.
But the dual-screen and entirely new form-factor should be enough to overcome any challenges of selling it versus the iPhone Pro lineup. There, the issue will be price: are people willing to pay as much for an iPhone as they pay for a high-end MacBook Pro? Perhaps double what they pay for a MacBook Air? I mean, probably, presuming it's good! But the foldable market to date is still very much nascent, so that will fall to Apple's marketing team. Then again, marketing clearly hasn't worked with these other new iPhones in the past, so... We'll see!
Update: In a follow-up report, Ma and Liu specifically note that Apple is thinking about adding a second camera to the would-be second interation of the iPhone Air.
While it's not clear that they could do the work needed in time to hit the Spring 2027 timetable above, I'm more surprised by the continued reporting that Apple is aiming to use the Spring timeframe for the "regular" iPhone 18 as well. That would mean Fall of 2026 would only see the iPhone Pro models as well as the iPhone Fold – two clearly premium and thus, expensive, offerings.
I like my staggered pricing options timetable strategy a lot more!
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
M.G. Siegler
1 There were then some early indications of strong demand for the model in China, but that may have just been due to the fact that it was delayed as they figured out the SIM-free carrier situation. ↩
2 That original MacBook Air, despite the famous and iconic Steve Jobs envelope unveil, was also not a huge hit out of the gate. But that was also largely because it was expensive and under-powered... ↩
