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Author of essays on learning, time, design, and humor, shares insights through scrapscript and blogs.hn.
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I'm leaving OpenAI to build Jurassic Park

2026-08-06 08:00:00

I'm so grateful for my time at OpenAI, where I led alignment safety for the official ChatGPT basketball. I gained so much valuable experience building Altman's armageddon engines, and I'm taking it to the next level with my new startup: Jurassic Park.

At Jurassic Park, we're resurrecting the ultimate apex predators to defend humanity against misaligned AI.

Cyberdefense Capabilities

Horizontal bars counting disclosed security incidents by species, with a safety grade beside each. Humans run off the end of the scale at eleven thousand and score an F. Claude models sit at three and OpenAI models at one, both scoring in the C range. Tyrannosaurus rex, Triceratops and Stegosaurus all sit at zero and score A plus.

Further reading: OpenAI incident report, Anthropic incident report.

According to the fossil record, dinosaurs lived for 165 million years without a single recorded AI cyberattack. Many speculate that dinosaurs developed a natural immunity to artificial intelligence threats.

Two panels separated by an axis break. The left panel counts dinosaur genera from 250 million years ago to the present: the line climbs through the Mesozoic to about 950 genera, then falls vertically to zero at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary 66 million years ago. The red line for disclosed AI cyberattacks picks up exactly where the dinosaur line hits zero, runs flat along the floor across the axis break into the 2015-to-2026 panel, then rises steeply from 2023 to fourteen.

Datacenters evolved strong concrete exoskeletons to protect their vulnerable innards from predators. But think about it -- a dinosaur wins against pretty much everything (except maybe a literal meteor). In a recent poll, most scientists agreed that a dinosaur could totally destroy a datacenter if it really wanted to.

Four vertical bars comparing standing height in metres. Argentinosaurus reaches 12 metres with its head raised, Tyrannosaurus rex about 5 metres, a server rack 2.2 metres, and a human 1.7 metres.

Anti-AI dinosaurs have already passed experimental trials in Japan.

In 1974, apes from Black Hole Planet 3 built a space-titanium imitation of Godzilla, which rampaged across Japan. But Mechagodzilla's disguise burned off and Godzilla (with assistance from the Okinawan guardian beast) turned him into a magnet and then tore his head off.

In 1975, the ape aliens built Mechagodzilla 2, who rampaged across Japan with Dr. Mafune's sea beast Titanosaurus. But Dr. Mafune's cyborg daughter discovered she was Mechagodzilla's wireless transmitter, and shot herself to sever the link. Godzilla seized this opportunity to decapitate Mechagodzilla 2 and blast its corpse with his signature heat ray.

Model Weights

A scatter of encephalization quotient against body mass on a log scale, split into four quadrants. Humans sit highest among animals at 7.5 and 62 kilograms; dolphins and chimpanzees follow. Velociraptor beats a chicken. Tyrannosaurus rex reaches 2.2 at seven tonnes, while Stegosaurus, Triceratops and Argentinosaurus sit near the floor in the large-and-dim quadrant. Two language models are drawn as hollow markers above every animal.

Mass is estimated; only Chinese weights are public.

Sustainability

Horizontal bars of continuous power draw on a log scale from 0.01 kilowatts to 1 megawatt, with a watts-per-kilogram column on the right. A resting human draws 0.08 kilowatts, an ostrich 0.3, a Tyrannosaurus rex 0.5 and a 70-tonne Argentinosaurus 2. One GPU rack draws 120 and one 100-megawatt datacenter hall draws 100,000.

This chart assumes dinosaurs are ectotherms, not endotherms.

Dinosaurs are energy-efficient from cradle to plate! Dinosaur meat is a natural superfood -- rich in protein or omega-3 or something. We expect it to fetch a heavy premium at fancy steak restaurants when it first comes out.

We're committed to 100% circularity. Surplus dinosaur parts will be fully recycled into coal at our proprietary underground facilities.

Alignment

Everybody loves dinosaurs! Don't you want to cuddle these gentle giants?

Purchase our official life-sized Stegosaurus plushie from selected distributors.

Copyright

Contrary to popular belief, most dinosaurs pose no copyright infringement risks.

The Land Before Time (1988) was a decent film with superb animation, but the child-friendly sequels really tarnished the brand. We expect a reboot any year now.

Jim Henson's Dinosaurs aired on ABC from 1991 to 1994. Although targeted at a family audience, it somehow covered complex topics like sexual harassment, censorship, religion, steroid abuse, masturbation, and corporate crime. It got surprisingly good reviews; many appreciated its creepy-but-well-executed practical effects.

Economic Outlook

Two projected lines of United States employment in millions from 2026 to 2040. Jobs remaining after AI fall in a straight line from 160 million to under 2 million, a 99 percent loss. Jurassic Park employment starts near zero and rises exponentially, crossing the falling line at about 36 million in 2037 and reaching 220 million by 2040.

Top economists expect AI to take ~99% (±5%) of human jobs. We believe Jurassic Park is the ultimate jobs program.

AI cannot raise cattle, nor feed them to raptors with Spielberg's cinematic finesse. It cannot pick up mountains of feces ("poop") without a mechanized corporeal form. Human jobs are safe as long as we have dinosaurs.

Ancient humans harnessed the power of megafauna for megaprojects. According to The History Channel, ancient Egyptians used terrestrial sauropods to build the Great Pyramid of Giza.

Roadmap

  • Phase 1: Completed. Resort and theme park construction on Little Saint James Island.
  • Phase 2a: Ongoing. Research begins into growing organic dinosaurs in vivo.
  • Phase 2b: Coming soon. Park opens with really big horses and "killer" mechanized dinosaurs (built by Boston Dynamics). Our robosaurs will run the latest Grok 6.9 Mechahitler.
  • Phase 3: Probably. Jurassic Cafe adds literal dinosaur nuggets to the menu -- tastes like chicken.
  • Phase 4: Eventually. First organic dinosaurs enter the park.
  • Phase 5: Secure AI datacenter (with a big off-switch for safety) constructed inside the T-Rex exhibit.
  • Phase 6: The Loch Ness Monster fights Shamu clones in The Splash Coliseum™️ on Saturdays and Sundays.

AI scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn't stop to think if they should. Luckily, our dino scientists are doing what they must.

We're so excited to send you back to the stone age.

Disclosure: This post was partially funded by The Reptilian World Government.

I prefer "Yankee" over "Usonian" over "American"

2026-07-14 08:00:00

I was born in the USA. Many tongues call me "American": Italian (americano), French (Américain), German (Amerikaner), Dutch (Amerikaan), Afrikaans (Amerikaner), Japanese (アメリカ人, amerika-jin), Filipino (Amerikano), Hebrew (אמריקני), Arabic (أمريكي), Portuguese (americano), Russian (американец), and Hindi (अमरीकी, Amreeki).

I grew up in Southern California. Many of my friends were zeroeth-generation immigrants from Mexico. Weren't their parents born in North America, too?

As an adult, I lived in Washington State. There I met many fine Canadians, visiting for work, education, and play. Were they not Americans too?

We of the United States, in justice to Canadians and Mexicans, have no right to use the title "Americans" when referring to matters pertaining exclusively to ourselves.

-- James Duff Law

Circa 1903, James Duff Law coined the term "Usonian" for the peoples of the United States of America.

Esperanto speakers adopted "usonano" as early as 1905.

But why this term "America" has become representative as the name of these United States at home and abroad is past recall. Samuel Butler fitted us with a good name. He called us Usonians, and our Nation of combined States, Usonia.

– Frank Lloyd Wright

Wright popularized "Usonia" around 1927. To him, the US middle class outclassed European aristocracy. His Usonian homes celebrated the simplicity and individualism of US suburbia.

His Usonian homes inspired ranch-style houses.

But "Usonia" sounds too beautiful for the United States -- collegial, polished, academic. "Would you prefer Italian or Usonian wine with your halibut, ma'am?"

Our heritage is that of pilgrims and prophets and rednecks and reverends. We've got the best medical centers and the most overdoses; the best universities and the most young-Earth creationists.

I feel less than American and more than Usonian. I wish there were a word between…

Yankeeism is the general character of the Union. Yankee manners are as migratory as Yankee men. The latter are found everywhere and the former prevail wherever the latter are found. Although the genuine Yankee belongs to New England, the term "Yankee" is now as appropriate to the natives of the Union at large.

-- Thomas Colley Grattan

"Yankee" is a silly word. It probably originated from Dutch Janke ("Little John") or Flemish Jan Kees ("John Cheese").

During the Revolutionary War, British troops sang "Yankee Doodle" to paint US folk as raucous clowns. And in true Yankee fashion, US troops put it in their caps and called it macaroni. Yankee Doodle remains a source of national pride.

Brits (and Aussies) still use "Yankee" in a pejorative sense.

The US still exudes that panache. In the early 1800s, colonials built a civilization while consuming ~1 gallon of 90-proof liquor per month. Their children's children invented plastic and Hollywood, which pollinated via red cups and reality television. Only the US could elect a reality TV star to be its leader (twice). It takes gall to produce Idiocracy and then make it happen.

We should move the US capitol from DC to Las Vegas.

Only the US could give casinos to its decimated native populations as a consolation prize. Only we could inflict upon ourselves epidemics of painkillers, crack, school shootings, and Tide Pods. Only we could produce evangelicals.

US folk are Yankees. We're obnoxious, tacky, foul, and we're proud of it.

To foreigners, a Yankee is an American.

To Americans, a Yankee is a Northerner.

To Northerners, a Yankee is an Easterner.

To Easterners, a Yankee is a New Englander.

To New Englanders, a Yankee is a Vermonter.

And in Vermont, a Yankee is somebody who eats pie for breakfast.

-- E B White

But Southern Yankees reject the label. Many still cling to the failed Confederate nation of their fathers' fathers. They're right to remain angry -- we've since let our Southern siblings slide ever further into poverty, illiteracy, and hopelessness. To them, Yankeeism is another flavor of European aristocracy.

Southerners are suffering, and it's easier to be dismissive than to be helpful. The Civil War will not end until Southerners are proud to call themselves Yankees too.

the spartan, cramped, and unstintingly functional jeep became the ubiquitous World War II four-wheeled personification of Yankee ingenuity and cocky, can-do determination.

-- Doug Stewart

We should make Yankee synonymous with the best of the United States -- dynamism, ingenuity, hospitality, self-sufficiency.

I like "Usonia", but it ain't US. We're Yankees, for better and worse, and we should act like it.

-pede

2026-07-11 08:00:00

Typefaces

2026-07-10 08:00:00

Dear Jon,

2026-07-08 08:00:00

I like reading letters for particular persons.

You and I talk about simulating each other. I've got a little Jon (not a Lil Jon) inside me. He tells me about chemistry, and systems, and to not take it all so seriously, dude. That voice is one of the wisest and best parts of me. Thanks.

I can't simulate just anybody. Only high-fidelity training data creates simulations, and we've shared the human experience. I cherish our training data -- years of spats, riffs, tiffs, spills, wins, and shenanigans.

My blog sometimes feels like a pro-wrestling match, where I pretend(?) to beat myself up for others' enjoyment. But I always lose those fights. After crowds grow bored, Vince McMahon sends me to the guillotine.

You once said something about how you talked to your brother in your head. Okay, I don't remember the words, but it made an impression on me, and I'm not sure what that impression is. An echo of an echo rattles in my skull now.

Long ago, we had a late-night (or early-morning?) Uber ride to LAX. We started chatting about anabolic steroids. Our driver talked to us about pro-wrestling.

I'm sorry I abandoned you. I'm always so desparate to find greener pastures for us. Was it green enough already? I'm glad I'm back.

Litte Jon (not Lil Jon) is great, but he's not you. Not even close. I need more training data.

tt

How US Opportunity Zones Really Work

2026-07-05 08:00:00

tl;dr: Investors can dodge taxes by parking their capital gains in ~6,400 designated low-income census tracts.

Idea

After the 2008 financial crisis, investors retreated from risky markets (e.g. distressed towns) and chased trusted collateral (e.g. coastal real estate). Affluent communities recovered while poor towns starved of capital.

Diverging bars, percent change 2011–2015. Prosperous zip codes gained 24.5% in jobs and 12.6% in businesses; distressed zips fell 6.0% and 6.3%. The recovery skipped distressed communities.

Changes in jobs/businesses by community prosperity quintile, 2011-2015, via EIG.

Meanwhile, US investors sat on trillions of dollars of unrealized capital gains. Selling a stock triggers taxes, so people held on for opportunities that (A) offset their realized capital gains and (B) make more money.

In 2015, EIG suggested waiving taxes for capital gains deployed into a capital-starved community, i.e. an "opportunity zone" (OZ).

The 2015 paper was co-authored by Kevin Hassett (Trump's Council of Economic Advisers chair) and Jared Bernstein (Biden's Council of Economic Advisers chair).

Deferring a capital gain typically only works when trading real estate for real estate (i.e. 1031 exchange). But with EIG's OZ proposal, you could defer a gain from any asset class (e.g. stocks, crypto, a whole business, collectibles) by rolling it into an OZ fund.

Law

Opportunity zones hit Congress in April 2016 as the Investing in Opportunity Act. It died in the Senate Finance Committee.

The bill was sponsored by Tim Scott (R-SC), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Pat Tiberi (R-OH), and Ron Kind (D-WI).

In December 2017, Congress folded the idea into the humongous Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which became law.

Here's how it works for investors:

  1. If you take on a realized capital gain (e.g. you sell stock/crypto/equity/asset/etc.), you have 180 days to roll it into a Qualified Opportunity Fund (QOF). Anybody can create a self-certified QOF via IRS Form 8996. To qualify for benefits, the fund must keep 90% of its assets inside a designated zone.
  2. Whatever the QOF buys must be (A) built new or (B) substantially improved. For an existing building, the fund has 30 months to double its basis (i.e. spend as much fixing it up as it paid to buy it).

A timeline of years held. Defer: the old gain's tax is paused — until a fixed Dec 2026 wall (≈ year 7 for 2019-vintage money), where a red segment shows the deferred tax coming due. Reduce: 10% and 15% step-ups at years 5 and 7, both expired under the 2017 law. Exclude: at year 10 the fund's own gain becomes 100% tax-free.

The whole OZ 1.0 clock runs to a fixed date: the deferred tax is due at the end of 2026 no matter when you bought in, so the pause is shorter the later you invested — about seven years for 2019 money, five for 2021.

Here's what you got for parking your gains:

  1. Deferred: Taxes on your contributed gains are deferred until 2026.
  2. Reduced: 10% of deferred gains were waived after 5 years (or 15% over 7 years).
  3. Rebased: Step-up basis to fair-market value at sale if held for ten years. The depreciation you deducted during the hold is not recaptured.
  4. Waived: Taxes on the fund's gains are waived entirely if held for ten years.

Bonus: A Qualified Opportunity Zone Business (QOZB), which keeps 70% of its tangible property in-zone, unlocks a 31-month "working-capital safe harbor" (i.e. it doesn't need to pay taxes on its unspent cash).

Two bars: a $100 capital gain held ten years keeps about $134 in a taxable account but about $176 through an Opportunity Fund. The dashed ceiling at $200 is the gain doubling untaxed; the fund lands $42 closer to it.

$100 long-term gain at 23.8% top rate, fund value doubling over ten years.

In early 2018, 31,680 low-income tracts (and ~9,450 contiguous neighbors) were eligible to become opportunity zones; each governor could nominate 25% of their State's eligible tracts. In June 2018, the US Treasury certified 8,764 tracts (including most of Puerto Rico). These designations were locked for 10 years with no mechanism to swap tracts.

Low-income tracts are defined by populations who (A) exceed 20% poverty or (B) fall below 80% of surrounding area's median family income.

A tile-grid map of the US, one square per state shaded by designated OZ tracts per 100,000 residents in 2018. Most states sit between 2 and 3.5; the Deep South, Appalachia, and the northern plains run darker. Puerto Rico is off the scale at 27.

Designated Opportunity Zone tracts per 100,000 residents, via CDFI.

Effects

Histogram from the Joint Committee on Taxation (IRS data): 2019 household income of Qualified Opportunity Fund investors versus the general US population. The population clusters below $150k; QOF investors spread far up the scale, with a tall spike of investors at $1.5M and above — where almost no ordinary households sit.

Opportunity zones lured in the billionaires. This should be no surprise — the investors with all the unrealized capital gains suddenly had a safer way to put their money back in the game. Well-designed incentives can entice people to trade their valuable stocks for distressed land.

The biggest OZ fund sponsors were conventional real-estate shops. Bridge Investment Group led with roughly $3.7 billion raised, followed by CIM Group (~$2.3B), Griffin Capital (~$1.6B), and Cantor Fitzgerald (~$1.1B).

A line chart of cumulative equity in Opportunity Funds, from the IRS near-census of all funds. Light bars mark the new equity added each year; a bold line runs the running total from $26.7B in 2019 to $84.7B by 2022 — the latest comprehensive IRS figure.

Cumulative equity in opportunity funds, via JCT.

Scatter chart, 2014–2022: the share of tracts with new development in Opportunity Zones (gold) versus eligible tracts that were never designated (green). The two move together until the 2017 TCJA and 2018 OZ approval; afterward the OZ tracts pull sharply ahead — near 100–110% by 2021 while non-OZ tracts hold around 70%.

But opportunity zones specifically reward holding appreciating assets in a fixed place for ten years. Real estate naturally fits these criteria, but buildings are not necessarily businesses.

Horizontal bars of QOF dollars by business sector. Real estate and leasing takes 62.7%, dwarfing information (9%), construction (8.5%), and finance (7%). All sixteen operating-business sectors combined are 8.3%.

Share of investment by sector, via JCT.

Even with tax perks, ten years is a long shadow. Of the eligible tracts that were nominated, most received no investment whatsoever. OZ funds ate low-hanging fruit. Money flowed into tracts with already appreciating land values (or intrinsic strategic value).

A Lorenz curve of investment across all 8,764 zones. It hugs the bottom — 52% of zones got $0 through 2020 — then rockets up: the top 10% of zones captured 84% of the dollars.

Distribution of QOZ property investment, US Treasury.

5% of a State's designated zones could bypass the low-income threshold if (A) they shared borders with a designated low-income tract and (B) their median family income did not exceed 125% of the poorer tract's.

Reporting requirements were stripped from the original law, so investigative journalists filled gaps for the program's first two years. The New York Times traced how a Nevada tract (Tesla's Gigafactory) with 7.5% poverty made the list when the Treasury overruled its own staff after a Milken Institute event. ProPublica documented how a Baltimore $233M waterfront megaproject (owned by Under Armour's Kevin Plank) qualified via a digital-mapping artifact.

But the "contiguous loophole" was not exploited as much as expected. Only 230 non-low-income tracts (2.6% of the 5% threshold) were designated.

Two panels comparing designated zones, eligible-but-skipped tracts, and all US tracts. Designated zones had higher average poverty (31.75% vs 21.12% vs 16.61%) and lower median income ($33k vs $44k vs $59k).

Averages of tract-median values, via Urban Institute.

Of course some investors abused OZ incentives, but money generally flowed into low-income tracts as intended. Someday we may know whether those private investments actually outweigh lost tax revenue.

Extension

OZ 1.0 was set to expire on December 31, 2026.

But the One Big Beautiful Bill made opportunity zones permanent in July 2025. OZ 2.0 follows the same playbook with stricter eligibility requirements (and zero contiguous tract provisions). Only 60% of OZ 1.0 tracts are fully eligible for OZ 2.0.

Tracts' median family income threshold was reduced to 70% (prev. 80%) of the State's median (or surrounding metro area).

A timeline of years held under OZ 2.0. Defer: the old gain's tax is paused for a rolling five years, then due at year 5 — no fixed 2026 wall. Reduce: 10% of the gain forgiven at year 5, tripled to 30% for rural funds — a live benefit, not expired. Exclude: at year 10 the fund's own gain is 100% tax-free, with basis rebasing to fair-market value under a new 30-year cap.

Starting January 2027, here's what you get in OZ 2.0:

  1. Deferred: Taxes on your contributed gains are deferred for 5 years.
  2. Reduced: 10% of deferred gains forgiven after 5-year hold (30% for rural QROFs).
  3. Rebased: Step-up basis to fair-market value at sale if held for ten years. The depreciation you deducted during the hold is not recaptured. OZ 2.0 automatically rebases to FMV at year 30.
  4. Waived: Taxes on the fund's gains are waived entirely if held for ten years.

Explore every eligible OZ 2.0 tract on the interactive map.