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How to be Agentic in the Age of AI | Cate Hall (CEO of Astera)

2025-09-30 20:04:16

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Cate Hall is the CEO of Astera, a private foundation focused on AI risk and frontier technology. Before leading Astera, Cate’s unconventional career path took her from practicing law (including work on Supreme Court briefs) to becoming the world’s top-ranked female poker player in 2016. After overcoming personal struggles with addiction, she co-founded Alvea, a biotech company developing shelf-stable vaccines for pandemic response, before joining Astera. In this conversation, Cate shares insights on human psychology, agency as a learnable skill, and why she believes AI’s biggest risk may be a “soft takeover” in which humans gradually lose independence and meaning.

We explore:

  • How Cate’s approach to poker focused on reading people rather than pure game theory, and why this contrarian strategy worked

  • Why people who always try to “play” high status in conversations often have psychological issues

  • The critical difference between ambition and agency, and why they’re often confused

  • How LSD helped Cate break out of her career path and discover her own agency

  • Why Cate believes we need a slowdown in AI development to develop the social technologies to manage it

  • The challenge of maintaining meaning in human life as AI systems increasingly mediate our experiences

  • How Astera is using investment as a philanthropic tool to help steer frontier technology development


Explore the episode

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction to Cate Hall

(03:56) Cate’s role as CEO of Astera

(04:52) Cate’s poker career and focus on live reading

(07:02) The intuitive ‘people radar’ Cate has in identifying exceptional talent

(11:16) Status dynamics in conversations

(16:13) The parallel between poker and startup evolution

(19:18) The German wave in poker and game theory

(24:22) Cate’s legal career and Supreme Court experience

(27:05) The difference between ambition and agency

(29:13) How LSD helped Cate discover her agency

(31:26) Leaving poker and dealing with mental health issues

(34:26) The founding story of Alvea

(38:14) The founding story of Astera

(43:15) Cate’s journey into AI risk

(45:50) The concept of a “soft takeover” and how AI might hollow out human experience

(49:46) The overwhelming challenge of addressing AI risk

(51:20) Astera’s approach to steering technology development

(53:15) Astera’s investment in Last Energy

(54:20) How philanthropy and investing work together at Astera

(57:22) Practical ways to increase personal agency

(1:07:20) Final meditations


Follow Cate Hall

X: https://x.com/catehall

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cate-hall-9a81a35/

Newsletter: https://usefulfictions.substack.com/


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Maintaining Human Intelligence in the AI Era | David Krakauer (President of the Santa Fe Institute)

2025-09-23 22:03:59

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David Krakauer is a leading complex systems researcher and the president of the Santa Fe Institute, a unique institution dedicated to studying complex systems across disciplines. In this episode, David challenges conventional wisdom about AI, arguing that large language models pose a more immediate threat to humanity than commonly discussed existential risks—not by destroying us directly, but by eroding our cognitive capabilities through addictive, low-quality information.

We explore:

  • Why David believes LLMs aren't intelligent at all and how the AI community misunderstands emergence

  • The three dimensions of intelligence: inference, representation, and strategy—and which one LLMs lack

  • How AI acts as a "competitive" rather than "complementary" cognitive technology, atrophying our thinking abilities

  • What makes great minds unique, from analogical reasoning to the cultivation of unconscious creativity

  • How Cormac McCarthy's approach to knowledge and creativity offers lessons for the AI age

  • Why David believes the greatest threat from AI isn't existential risk but cognitive atrophy

  • How to protect your mind against AI's addictive pull and maintain cognitive autonomy


Explore the episode

Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(04:39) The Santa Fe Institute’s approach to complex systems

(06:45) Murray Gell-Mann’s ‘Odysseus vs. Apollonian’

(10:35) How SFI was shaped by the legacy of Los Alamos

(12:45) Traits David looks for in great minds

(14:43) Cormac McCarthy on naivety and how thoughtful people treat knowledge

(19:24) A simple explanation of complexity science

(22:50) Why vantage point doesn’t matter when studying systems

(24:36) Aesthetic preferences among complexity scientists

(26:07) Films and directors with complexity science themes

(29:57) Why David argues LLMs are not intelligent

(32:10) What’s missing in the study of LLMs

(36:40) The three qualities of intelligence and how LLMs measure up

(42:19) Lessons from "The Glass Bead Game"

(44:00) David’s perspective on reinforcement learning

(45:38) The greatest threat of LLMs: overreliance and the decline of thinking

(47:40) Competitive vs. complementary cognitive artifacts

(51:55) Why exposing yourself to quality ideas matters

(54:00) How to derisk LLM use

(58:32) Cormac McCarthy’s legacy at SFI and beyond

(1:02:40) The Kekulé Problem: cultivating the unconscious

(1:05:01) Why David and McCarthy were inspired by Wittgenstein

(1:09:00) What Cormac McCarthy liked to talk about

(1:12:20) David’s questions to a higher being

(1:14:46) Final meditations


Follow David Krakauer

Website: https://davidckrakauer.com/


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Leading Through a Crisis with Ryan Petersen

2025-09-18 21:48:52

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Friends,

No company follows precisely the same path as another. But certain patterns repeat. One is the Napoleonic Return: a CEO leaves the company they have founded – either by choice or force – only to reclaim their position after a period away. After being forced out by Apple’s board in 1985, Steve Jobs spent 12 years in the wilderness, building NeXT, before returning to power. Howard Schulz stepped back from leading Starbucks at the turn of the millennium, reappearing eight years later when the financial crisis roiled the coffee maker. In 2004, Michael Dell passed the reins to his COO before seizing them back three years later. 

Few have pulled off the Napoleonic Return quite as quickly as Ryan Petersen. (His only better in this regard is Sam Altman, whose coup lasted a mere five days). In March of 2023, former Amazon exec Dave Clark became the sole CEO of Flexport, taking over from its founder. Just seven months later, he was out. 

Much was written about the move at the time, but not since. In today’s final letter with Ryan Petersen, he shares what happened from his perspective, walking through what went wrong, why he needed to return, how he stabilized a flagging organization, and the hard decisions made in the process. It’s an intimate look at the strategic and emotional impact of a founder reclaiming control over their company – invaluable for entrepreneurs and investors. 

To hear the full story and unlock the rest of The Generalist’s exclusive interviews, case studies, and databases, join our premium newsletter, Generalist+. You'll get unfettered access to our best work for $22 per month or $220 per year. Level up your investing and operating for the price of a business lunch.

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Mario’s letter

Subject: Leading through crisis
From: Mario Gabriele
To: Ryan Petersen
Date: Monday September 1 2025 at 10:02 AM GMT

Hi Ryan,

I’m sure I’m going to be sending your previous letter to many founders in the years to come. It was full of so many interesting lessons about fundraising, finding talent, and thinking through acquisitions.

I’m especially grateful for the frankness with which you share the challenges Flexport has endured to reach its current position. The more companies and CEOs I study, the more I learn that these moments are not simply commonplace, but inescapable. It seems to be one of the prices you pay in pursuit of greatness.

That brings me to the subject of today’s correspondence: leading through a crisis. Though some of the episodes discussed in our last letter certainly sound troubling, Flexport’s most significant crisis seems to have been the unsuccessful appointment of Dave Clark as CEO, and the associated fallout.

You will need no reminder of the particulars of this story, but I’ll give a brief recap for the benefit of readers. I apologize for having you relive what may not be your favorite period to reflect upon!

Here we go: On June 8, 2022, Flexport announced that Dave Clark would be taking over as CEO starting in September. It was seen as a strong fit given Clark’s 23 years at Amazon, where he’d been pivotal in building out the company’s fulfillment network. He’d ultimately risen to become CEO of Worldwide Consumer.

You had a thoughtful plan for the transition: Clark worked alongside you as co-CEO for six months before he officially took the reins in March 2023. At that point, you moved into an Executive Chairman role, and not long after, you also became a Partner at Founders Fund.

Shortly after the official hand-off, Clark made a few significant changes, acquiring Shopify’s logistics business (including Deliverr) and adding senior executives from his Amazon days, like Teresa Carlson.

He did not last much longer. As the story goes, at least, Clark submitted his resignation on September 5, 2023. Flexport’s board then rejected Clark’s resignation, preferring to fire him for cause the very next day. You stepped back into the CEO role, and the next few days (and weeks) got a bit messy with some back and forth in the press.

I can’t imagine how intense that period was from your perspective. You had to step back into the breach during a period of chaos, stress, and disharmony. You had new employees to win over, and old ones to re-align. I would imagine that you had customers confused by the change, and perhaps a few fractious investors breathing down your neck.

What did it feel like? How did you protect your clarity and decision-making? Given that you’d intended to take a less active role for the foreseeable future, was it difficult to ramp back up as CEO? What was the state of the company that you inherited?

Tactically, what did you prioritize upon your return? Which steps did you take immediately, and which did you have to delay? As much as possible, I’d love to understand what you did to pull the company through this crisis and the lessons you learned from it. Has it changed the way you lead today?

I’m grateful for your willingness to discuss this with me, and I'd like to thank you very much for taking part in this series. I’ve really enjoyed it.

Best,
Mario

PS – Given the omnivorous learning habits you mentioned in our last letter, I wondered if there was one book, or piece in particular, that you refer back to most often?

Ryan’s letter

Subject: Leading through crisis
From: Ryan Petersen
To: Mario Gabriele
Date: Tuesday September 9 2025 at 7:38 PM GMT

Hi Mario,

It was a tough period.

I realized we had to make a change when I started hearing from people at Flexport. There are a lot of people that love this company and want it to succeed, and they weren’t happy with the way things were going under Dave. I started getting dozens and dozens of phone calls and in-person meeting requests from employees wanting to talk to me.

Their concerns went beyond the P&L, which was ultimately the main driver of the board’s decision to change Dave out. The board’s rationale was clear, they said “Hey, you guys have to change direction here. You have to both cut costs and grow.”

That’s a very difficult maneuver. It’s not just about firing people, you have to let the right people go. It’s really hard to do that without the right context on the company and the team. No one has more context than the founder; I’m fused at birth with Flexport. The board wanted someone to do this surgery, and it became clear it had to be me. It actually wasn’t my decision to come back – the board unanimously voted.

By the time that all happened, I’d already spoken to a lot of the employees who had come forward. I’d heard that our quality had fallen off, that we weren’t growing, and that things were going wrong. So I had some context, maybe even before the board.

Dave is a very credible and very certain person. He was also wrong about important parts of the business. But because of that credibility and certainty, it was hard to know he was wrong. Even if you think something’s off, when you talk to him, you allow your anxiety to get tamped down.

Coming back was incredibly hard and incredibly rewarding at the same time. We had to figure out how to cut costs and improve quality simultaneously, get a culture back that had been put through so much change, let customers know that we were going to stick around, and manage a PR disaster.

That last part was a totally unforced error that didn’t need to happen. A former employee made up lies about Dave, which they shared with a reporter. When the reporter told Dave that “someone close to Flexport” had said these things, he thought the company was making things up about him, got mad, and started trashing the company. Suddenly, we had the kind of story the media loves, with people talking shit about each other.

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Building Beautiful Homes with Robots: The Future of Construction | Salar al Khafaji (CEO and Founder of Monumental)

2025-09-16 20:03:48

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Salar al Khafaji is the CEO and founder of Monumental, a company building autonomous robots that assemble buildings, starting with its bricklaying system. After selling his previous software company to Palantir, Salar took time to explore big industries ripe for disruption before landing on construction—a sector that represents a significant portion of GDP yet has seen decades of productivity stagnation.

We explore:

  • Why construction represents a massive opportunity for technological innovation

  • How Monumental's system of three robots works together to lay bricks autonomously

  • Why Europe's severe bricklayer shortage has created wages as high as €80/hour

  • The post-WWII shift away from beautiful architecture and how to bring it back

  • Why operating as a subcontractor rather than selling robots makes business sense

  • The challenges of building a hardware startup in Europe's tech ecosystem

  • How Palantir's "cult-like" culture influenced Monumental's approach to company building

  • The balance between structure and productive chaos in scaling a startup

  • Why the best robotics companies solve specific problems rather than building general-purpose machines

  • How to foster ambition in Europe's startup ecosystem


Explore the episode

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction to Salar

(04:44) Overview of Monumental’s work and mission

(06:25) Salar’s journey after selling his company to Palantir

(11:46) Stagnation in the construction industry

(14:21) The mental shift from software to hardware entrepreneurship

(16:10) Salar’s funding framework

(18:21) The post-WWII decline in constructing beautiful buildings

(20:23) Choosing bricklaying as the first construction trade to tackle

(25:20) Why Monumental operates as a subcontractor

(28:38) The limitations of 3D printing and prefab construction

(33:15) The technology and pricing bets Salar made

(33:45) Lessons from Palantir's culture

(39:35) Monumental's company culture

(42:31) An overview of a construction job from start to finish

(45:50) Precision and tolerances

(47:50) Surprising challenges in the construction industry

(49:10) The current state of Monumental and what’s next

(54:00) Why humanoid robots don’t make sense for Monumental

(56:16) Building an ambitious company in Europe

(01:00:56) Monumental’s approach to hiring

(01:03:10) The state of European tech and what needs to change

(01:06:00) Salar’s optimistic take on the current state of tech in Europe

(01:10:46) Final meditations


Follow Salar al Khafaji

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/salark/

X: https://x.com/salar

Website: https://sal.ar/


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Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].

The Jensen Huang Playbook

2025-09-11 20:12:14

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Illustration by Tyler Comrie

Friends,

In 1973, a ten-year-old Taiwanese boy arrived at the Oneida Baptist Institute in eastern Kentucky. His parents, a chemical engineer and a schoolteacher, had sold most of their possessions to pay for what they believed to be an elite boarding school—a little Andover in Clay County. In fact, Oneida was a reform school dedicated to righting the paths of Kentucky’s wayward youths. The boy’s roommate, a seventeen-year-old illiterate, spent their first night together showing off the knife scars he’d accumulated.

The boy was small in size, spoke little English, and, save for his older brother, was the only Asian student at the school. Combined with an intelligence that seemed unhindered by the changes around him, such qualities made him a natural target for bullies. However, something in his personality would not allow him to become a victim of attacks. He fought back ferociously, unfazed by his small stature. He built muscle, too – in exchange for teaching his older roommate how to read, he was taught how to bench press. By the end of his first year at Oneida, the boy had not only adapted but flourished, becoming a leader among his classmates.

In miniature, this tells you almost everything one might wish to know about Jen-Hsun (Anglicized to “Jensen” during his time at Oneida) Huang. From his earliest days, the Nvidia CEO has exhibited a talent for entering foreign circumstances, often as an unfancied figure, and emerging as the victor. He does so not by dazzling with grandiosity or casting the longest shadow, but by allying intelligence, resilience, courage, and a ferocity prone to spill into fury.

It is this combination that allowed a first-time founder to outmaneuver two hundred direct competitors, outwit giants like Intel, and build what is now the most valuable company on the planet. At the time of writing, Nvidia boasts a market cap of more than $4.15 trillion, a cool $400 billion over Microsoft.

Nvidia is not simply a market-topping juggernaut, but the purveyor of the most existentially important technology on the planet. It is not fair to say that Nvidia is responsible for the modern artificial intelligence renaissance, but it would not have happened without it. The company’s chips are perhaps the essential ingredient in AI’s frothy cocktail – powerful and irreplaceable.

Though many have tried (and some continue to do so), no one has mounted a serious challenge to Huang’s empire, allowing it to clip more than 90% gross margins on its newest products and giving it a functional monopoly. The characters in Frank Herbert’s Dune know that “He who controls spice controls the universe.” While Nvidia’s GPUs may not be quite as multi-purpose as the mind-altering propellant at the heart of Herbert’s series, Huang’s company holds a similar sway in the tech industry. Even Silicon Valley’s grand dukes like Mark Zuckerberg and Sam Altman must genuflect before Huang, knowing, as they do, that much of their fate relies on steady access to his offerings. Competition will increase, and there is no doubt that AI is inflated beyond sense, but for now, at least, Huang stands alone.

As one might expect of such an outlier, Huang runs his business uncommonly. Though certain principles rhyme with those of Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk, he orients himself differently, running with an army of direct reports, ignoring customers (in certain phases), and shunning farsighted planning. He simultaneously mentors and “tortures” his employees, keeping standards high with constant feedback and fits of unbridled rage, yet manages to retain talent extraordinarily well.

This piece is part of The Generalist’s ongoing series of managerial “playbooks.” We have previously delved into Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. Our aim with this series is to reveal the real strategies great founders use to build their businesses. These are often uncomfortable and in direct conflict with traditional managerial advice. However, if you believe progress depends on innovation, as we do, then understanding these principles, foibles included, is not only interesting but essential.

We spent two months researching this playbook. Among a multitude of sources, some were especially valuable. In particular, I like The Thinking Machine by Stephen Witt, The Nvidia Way by Tae Kim, and the Nvidia series by Acquired. I’d recommend all three for those looking for further resources.

This is the Jensen Huang Playbook:

  1. Understand the “essence” of your industry

  2. “Torture” employees into greatness

  3. Pick “zero-billion-dollar” markets

  4. Ignore your customers

  5. Ship the whole cow

  6. Move at the “speed of light”

  7. The best plan is no plan

  8. Minimize information mutilation

To unlock the full playbook and learn the techniques of one of the most fascinating founders of our era, join our premium newsletter for just $22/month. Join thousands of other intelligent investors, founders, and operators today.

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The Playbook

1. Understand the “essence” of your industry

In 1998, Jensen Huang pulled Nvidia’s head of marketing, Michael Hara, into his office. He had a question.

“Mike, I don’t get it. If you look at the PC graphics industry, why is it that one company can never hold a lead more than two years?”

By that point, Nvidia had made it through its first couple of crises and lived to tell the tale. Freed from immediate existential threat, Huang had become obsessed with this question. Why did advantages disappear so quickly? Why was it seemingly impossible to build a durable lead?

The answer lay in understanding what Huang calls the “essence” of his industry: Moore’s Law. In his presentation at Stanford, Huang gave his distillation of Moore’s Law (emphasis ours): “It’s not so much a physical law as it is a law of competition, a law of challenging engineers. It’s almost a law of setting pace,” he said. “Moore’s Law gives you twice the performance every year or two. Understanding the fundamental ingredient of our business improves by a factor of two every year and simultaneously reduces in cost by a factor of two every year: the question is what makes a survivable business?”

The answer was speed. Historically, chip makers needed 18 months to take a new product from inception to launch. Given the industry’s rate of progress, that meant each of these chips were woefully out of date by the time they hit the shelves. When a competitor launched its offering six months later, it would not just be marginally better, but exponentially so. That made it functionally impossible for a single manufacturer to build and keep a lead.

Nvidia would do things differently. Rather than sticking to the 18-month schedule it had followed thus far, the company would ship a new chip every six months. That way, Nvidia would always be a couple of cycles ahead of the competition. Even if a competitor happened to release a superior product between cycles, customers would know that Nvidia had another product on its way soon, reducing the incentive to switch. “The competition will always be shooting behind the duck,” Huang said.

Doing so required Nvidia to retain the frantic mindset that had helped it endure its early crises. It also required a reorg. Huang segmented a once-unified design team into three sub-teams. While one team designed a new chip architecture, the other two focused on creating even quicker successors to be released down the line. Ultimately, it was an inspired change that allowed Nvidia to break free of the chasing pack.

2. “Torture” employees into greatness

It’s become an accepted rule of business that good managers praise in public and criticize in private. Jensen Huang disagrees. Whether he’s commending an employee on a job well done or eviscerating a misstep, he does so in full view of others.

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What Makes Something Alive? Assembly Theory and the Origins of Life | Sara Walker (Theoretical Physicist)

2025-09-09 20:03:55

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Sara Walker is a theoretical physicist who studies the origins of life and the author of Life as No One Knows It. As AI prompts us to rethink what consciousness, intelligence, and life really mean, Sara’s work offers a provocative framework for understanding these questions. In this conversation, Sara shares how she developed assembly theory—a revolutionary approach suggesting that complex objects like DNA molecules (and even microphones) are evidence of life’s processes.

We explore:

  • Why Sara believes we need entirely new laws of physics to understand life

  • How assembly theory quantifies the transition from non-life to life with a measurable threshold

  • Why complex objects like DNA and microphones are evidence of evolutionary processes

  • How our perception of objects as “physical” or “abstract” depends on their temporal scale

  • Why traditional definitions of life fail as scientific frameworks

  • How assembly theory could revolutionize our search for extraterrestrial life

  • The surprising connection between urban atmospheres and biosignatures

  • Why Sara sees fundamental differences between computation and physical construction

  • How assembly theory views AI systems and large language models

  • The creative parallels between theoretical physics and conceptual art


Explore the episode

Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(03:32) Sara’s background and approach to studying the origins of life

(08:21) Sara’s journey to theoretical physics

(11:40) How the “origin of life” field has evolved since she began her research

(17:35) Introduction to assembly theory and its core principles

(23:11) How assembly theory differs from traditional definitions of life

(25:53) The historical parallels between assembly theory and Newtonian physics

(31:45) Life vs. alive

(34:33) How dabbling across disciplines led to Sara’s focus and partnership with Lee Cronin

(40:43) The connection between theoretical physics and art

(42:32) The probabilistic nature of assembly theory’s threshold

(45:05) The time–size continuum

(48:06) New threads that have emerged after Life as No One Knows It

(50:27) Why assembly theory may be our best tool for finding life beyond Earth

(54:04) The second feature of assembly theory: the copy number

(55:39) The challenges of detecting life on exoplanets versus in our solar system

(01:00:50) How recent AI developments have impacted Sara’s thinking about life

(1:05:48) Whether large language models qualify as “life”

(1:13:05) Final meditations


Follow Sara Walker

X: https://x.com/sara_imari

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/saraimariwalker


Resources and episode mentions

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Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].