2026-04-29 22:25:00
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To investors,
I have a confession to make: I was wrong about AI.
Very wrong actually. It is no secret that I have been a bull on the technology for awhile and I think the impact on society is going to be positive. I believe AI will lead to economic abundance, while accelerating the United States even further into the future.
I still believe that stuff. I actually believe it more today than ever before.
But now I realize I got some of the details wrong. For example, I thought AI was going to destroy a significant number of jobs. I don’t believe that anymore.
I have completely changed my mind on how AI will impact jobs in America.
Previously, I believed AI would replace many entry level roles typically filled by young employees. The technology would then work its way up the organization and eventually reduce the total number of jobs in a company. Entry level job replacement was the wedge, followed by a “land-and-expand” adoption curve throughout the organization.
The data is telling us something different is happening though, so when I get new information I am willing to change my mind.
The number of software engineers being hired has been increasing. The number of open software engineer roles is growing.
The number of new college grads who get hired has increased 5.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment level for people aged 20-24 years old who have a college degree has fallen from nearly 9% to almost 5% as well.
The Wall Street Journal recently wrote “AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as Head of AI and AI engineer.”
And I am starting to see companies throughout our portfolio aggressively hiring to keep up with the demand for their products and services.
If AI can make employees more productive, which is widely accepted as fact, then companies are going to want as many productive units of labor as possible. This is a key reason why I am changing my mind.
AI appears to be a magical technology that will make companies more productive and more profitable. The net result will be more corporations, more startups, and more jobs.
All three are big, positive wins for the American economy.
When I tweeted these thoughts recently, I was shocked at how many people agreed with my new perspective. Palantir cofounder Joe Lonsdale loves the positive impact on America, Marc Andreessen said “this is the way,” Box CEO Aaron Levie said “the better AI gets at performing tasks, the more companies can take on those tasks, which leads to hiring more people to do the surrounding work of those tasks,” and Zynga founder Mark Pincus said “I share this view that AI is and will be the biggest job generator the world has ever seen.”
Now some of you may wonder how to reconcile this epiphany with the various headlines of companies laying off so many employees. The short answer is that companies are using AI as an excuse, but they aren’t actually letting people go because AI is taking their job.
Steven Sinofsky put it perfectly when he responded to me saying “the layoffs are clearly still all about over-hiring and under-managing. The demand for labor is going to skyrocket as companies learn what AI does. Just as the demand for labor increased as computing diffused through product and service delivery.”
This is why everyone is sinking so much money into the AI industry. Whoever wins the race to provide the hardware and software to every company on earth is going to be worth trillions of dollars. There may literally be no bigger addressable market than selling low-cost, high-value intelligence to millions of companies and billions of people.
The model companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and others get most of the coverage because there is unlimited demand for their products. Anthropic added $11 billion in annualized revenue in a single month. That is just absurd. OpenAI and Microsoft just renegotiated their deal so that it is non-exclusive now for OpenAI. That is a sign just how many enterprises are banging down the door for this technology.
People are confused on how companies are adopting AI though. Take Base Power in Texas. Justin Lopas, one of their cofounders, recently tweeted the following:
“In the span of ~3 months, the team at Base Power has built out operational tools that replace or avoid the purchase of an enormous amount of SaaS.
Token costs might actually equal the cost of buying the SaaS, but cost isn’t the point.
It’s the fact that the tools are perfectly tailored to our operations, infinitely customizeable going forward, and tied into our data.
A sampling:
Warehouse Management System (WMS)
Manufacturing Execution System
CRM for B2B sales
Material Requirements Planning (MRP)
Sales & Operations Planning tool
Labor crew management, forecasting, and associated vehicles tool
Policy objectives and stakeholders tracker
Countless dashboards for each team
The impact that AI has had on our business is incredible.”
This is an important nuance from Justin. Companies are not only adopting AI because of the cost savings, which frankly is still not fully understood. They are looking for customized software that is tied into their workflows and systems. They want software that makes their employees more productive and their companies more profitable.
So I knew that AI was going to be valuable. I knew we could accelerate the country and the economy. But I didn’t realize how fast the adoption curve would happen, nor did I fully appreciate that AI is going to be a job generator, rather than a job destroyer.
When you get new information, you change your mind. That is what I have done over the last few weeks. Nothing wrong with that. I just want to seek out the truth and then apply it to my investing framework.
Hope you all have a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.
Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.
I sat down to breakdown the biggest bitcoin predictions coming out of this year’s Bitcoin Conference. In this episode, I cover Arthur Hayes on digital credit driving the next bull run, Michael Saylor on the explosion of digital credit markets, Tim Draper on why it's now irresponsible for companies not to hold bitcoin, a major upcoming announcement from the White House on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, SEC Chair Paul Atkins on regulation as a catalyst, and Paul Tudor Jones on bitcoin as the best inflation hedge alive.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
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Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
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2026-04-28 00:40:53
I’m speaking on the Mainstage at Consensus Miami this May 5-7 — the event the entire industry shows up for, from Wall Street, the White House, and all of Web3. 20,000+ decision-makers. 72% director-level or above. Three days where deals get signed, funds get raised, and the next cycle gets shaped.
This year’s agenda tackles the three forces driving trillions on-chain and reshaping global finance: crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. You can’t afford to miss it.
Use code POMPLIANO for 25% off your pass and join me there.
To investors,
Momentum begets momentum. Returns attract capital. New all-time high stock prices bring even higher prices. And nowhere in finance is there more momentum and returns than in technology stocks.
Bluekurtic Market Insights writes “for the first time in 17 years, the Nasdaq 100 is up four consecutive weeks with gains exceeding 18%. This kind of momentum is usually bullish for the Nasdaq. One month later, the index was higher in six of seven cases, with a median gain of 8.5%.”
A big reason why the Nasdaq is doing so well is because of semiconductor stocks. Depending on how you count, there are about 15-18 semiconductor stocks in the Nasdaq index and Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen points out how well those companies have done.
Semiconductors are destroying software stocks this year.
- iShares Semi ETF $SOXX +53%
- iShares Software ETF $IGV -19%
72% spread between 2 sides of the AI trade.
Any time investors see a sector explode in popularity like these semiconductor stocks have in the last few weeks, it begs the question on whether the returns have already been captured by the market. David Marlin writes “77% of [the semiconductor index] ($SOX) constituents are overbought, the second highest reading in the last 20 years.
After similar readings, short-term returns were generally muted (2 week average of -1.9%, 1 month average +0.2%), but returns 5+ months out have been extremely positive.”
The average return 6 months out has been about 19%, which would suggest that semiconductor stocks have a lot of room to run if history repeats itself.
These semiconductor stocks are a big reason the S&P 500 has made a miraculous recovery from its dismal start to the year. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello writes “On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, the 12th worst start to a year in history. After one of the biggest 4-week rallies ever, it's now up +5% YTD and above the average year at this point in time (+3%). There is no impossible in markets.”
This is noteworthy because many investors are worried the market is overvalued right now. Take Global Markets Investor as one example. They write “The US stock market is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. The number of large stocks with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 10, and year-over-year price gains above +100% has surged to ~175, the highest level since the 2021 meme stock frenzy. Excluding 2021, this is the highest level since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst.”
But if you just look at historical valuations, you miss the bigger picture. Daily Chartbook highlights “With 28% of the index reported, 84% of companies have delivered higher-than-expected EPS. This is above the 5- and 10-year averages. In aggregate, companies are reporting EPS that are 12.3% above estimates. This is also higher than the 5- and 10-year averages.”
Mike Zaccardi also points out that “tech is at an all-time high, but its P/E is still 8 figures lower than the October 2025 high.”
So are stocks overvalued? It isn’t clear to me that people should be worried. In fact, there are numerous areas in financial markets that are not performing as well as semiconductors or tech more broadly.
Charlie Bilello highlights that “with the exception of Bitcoin, every major asset class is now in positive territory on the year.”
And Jim Bianco shows that defense stocks are getting crushed during the Iran war. Big narrative violation for both bitcoin and defense stocks.
But just because these assets have not done incredibly well doesn’t mean they can’t turn it around in the coming days.
Take bitcoin for example. Frank Fetter shows that “long-term holder supply is going absolutely vertical. Not a lot of sellers.”
And he explains that “historical premiums [are] being paid to short bitcoin here at $78,000, three standard deviations away from the mean. The shorts are playing with fire right now.”
So you have significant accumulation underway, along with short-sellers piling into an over-extended trade, which puts together the perfect ingredients for an asset like bitcoin to surge higher. Add in the backdrop of stocks going higher, along with Kevin Warsh potentially becoming the next Fed Chairman, and you have more components to a story where all asset prices are going to appreciate rapidly.
We are in a generational bull market. We have been locked in this environment since we came out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The central bank is supporting the market in a way that was previously deemed off limits. So whenever you see a pessimist promising you how bad the future will be, or how much destruction you will see in your portfolio, just remember to never buy into nonsense.
The modern Industrial Revolution is underway. We are rebuilding the infrastructure necessary for America to prosper for the next 100 years. Owning a piece of that trend is likely to pay off handsomely for those who are willing to do the work and understand what is happening.
Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is decoupling from software stocks, how it wins in both inflationary and deflationary environments, and the five scarcity-driven investment baskets Jordi is tracking right now. We also get into the AI agents shift, why public companies are struggling to adopt AI, and how to position a portfolio in a world of shortages.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-24 20:52:22
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To investors,
The mainstream media has not exactly been fans of bitcoin over the years. They have pronounced the digital currency dead hundreds of times. They have enjoyed mocking and ridiculing bitcoin investors during the large, nasty price drawdowns during bear markets. And they have pushed a narrative that bitcoin is only used by terrorists and drug dealers.
They know this stuff is not true, yet they have published the nonsense anyways. But every once in a while, I come across someone in the mainstream media that is intellectually honest. These rare individuals are genuinely curious about bitcoin and want to better understand why so many people have become fans of the asset.
That is why I was excited to talk to New York Times columnist Ross Douthat when he invited me to come on his podcast to discuss bitcoin. Ross hosts wide-ranging conversations on his show “Interesting Times” and I have always found him to be someone doing their best to understand the world around them.
Our conversation was published yesterday and you can watch it here:
I took two things away from this conversation. First, it has been awhile since I have had to explain the basics of bitcoin, including “what is bitcoin?,” “why is bitcoin valuable to the average person?,” and “who uses bitcoin?”
It is easy for bitcoiners and professional investors to get stuck in an echo chamber. We think everyone knows about bitcoin, understands the pros/cons, and is making sophisticated capital allocation decisions. That is obviously not the case. Ross really pushed me to explain bitcoin in simple terms for an audience that may not know a single thing about bitcoin. This was fun to do and hopefully my answers resonated with his listeners.
Second, Ross raised a number of complex questions in the second half of the interview. How does bitcoin thrive in a world of inflation or deflation? How should we think about the President’s family and their intimate involvement in bitcoin? What are the inherent risks with investing in bitcoin vs traditional assets?
I have spent a lot of time thinking about the nuances of bitcoin, including how it interacts with investment portfolios, geopolitics, and the economy. This part of the conversation was where Ross and I were able to exchange different opinions and perspectives. I think many of you will find it interesting to hear how Ross thinks about bitcoin and the pros/cons.
You can read the transcript and New York Times article by clicking here.
My goal in doing this interview was to spread the word about bitcoin to an audience that is unlikely to have spent much time on it, along with represent the bitcoin community well to the New York Times listeners. There are things I probably could have explained better, but hopefully I did a good enough job to make folks proud of the progress we have collectively made.
Spend a few minutes today listening to the conversation and let’s show the New York Times how passionate and engaged the bitcoin community is. Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.
Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.
In this conversation, we revisit the very first time Michael Saylor ever publicly talked about bitcoin — recorded in late 2020 when bitcoin was trading around $10,000.
We discuss his background founding MicroStrategy at age 24, the macro conditions that led him to reject cash as a store of value, why he chose bitcoin over gold and real estate, how he acquired $425 million in bitcoin without moving the market, and why he believes bitcoin is on a path to rival or surpass gold's market cap.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-23 21:52:24
I’m speaking on the Mainstage at Consensus Miami this May 5-7 — the event the entire industry shows up for, from Wall Street, the White House, and all of Web3. 20,000+ decision-makers. 72% director-level or above. Three days where deals get signed, funds get raised, and the next cycle gets shaped.
This year’s agenda tackles the three forces driving trillions on-chain and reshaping global finance: crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. You can’t afford to miss it.
Use code POMPLIANO for 25% off your pass and join me there.
To investors,
The President of the United States stepped up to the podium in the Rose Garden last April and he unleashed chaos in financial markets. His announcement of sweeping tariffs on all US imports sent markets into a free fall, academics began having a panic attack, and the internet exploded with various predictions of the next Great Depression.
Of course, this reaction was a complete waste of everyone’s time. The stock market eventually rallied higher and we got new all-time highs every few days. The “experts” were wrong and investors who ignored the noise did very well.
But there was one part of the mainstream analysis that seemed crazy to me at the time: the “experts” kept promising sky-high inflation from the tariffs. As I tweeted multiple times during April 2025, I felt strongly that deflation was a much bigger risk than inflation at the time.
One tweet on April 10, 2025 read: “All the consensus-seeking finance folks told you that tariffs are inflationary, but I will continue to point out that the much bigger risk is deflation.” I still stand by that statement.
You don’t have to believe me, nor do you have to listen to me say it anymore. Kevin Warsh, the next Federal Reserve Chairman, was on CNBC recently and he explicitly stated his belief that technology was going to bring structural price decline and deflation was a serious risk that the Fed should prepare for.
Take a listen to his comments:
AI is going to make everything cost less. We could be at the front-end of a productivity boom. We are probably in the early stages of a structural decline in prices.
These are sentences being said on national television from the man who will be in charge of the Federal Reserve. If you don’t clearly see that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in the coming months and years, I am not sure if any piece of information will convince you.
Now some of you will claim that Warsh is merely a Trump puppet who knows he has to cut rates to avoid conflict with the President. Others will claim that short-term price increases in oil, or longer-term price increases in commodities, will lead to higher levels of inflation, which would prevent the Fed from aggressively cutting interest rates.
I have no clue what Warsh’s politics are, nor do I have any idea how he will interact with the President. We will have to wait and see on that critique to see what ends up being true. Regarding higher levels of inflation though, it is fairly obvious to me that deflation remains a much bigger risk than inflation for the US economy.
Are oil and gas prices up? Yes. Are commodity prices up? Yes. But the US economy is much more dependent on technology than it has ever been, which is important because technology has been significantly reducing the price of a plethora of goods and services across the US economy.
That structural decline in prices that Warsh mentioned is widely misunderstood. For example, Jeff Booth has said before that “the natural state of a free market is deflation. Prices fall to their marginal cost of production.” If Jeff is right, which I believe he is, then we should expect prices to continue falling, especially as AI and robotics accelerate.
Intelligent critics of this world view will immediately point out that the US government is printing money, the national debt continues to worsen, and inflation has almost always followed these undisciplined spending habits. I don’t disagree that history shows us inflation would usually occur from the spending.
The difference in this moment is the deflationary forces that are swallowing the US economy. We have tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics that are working together to bring an incredibly strong force into the economy. As Elon Musk has previously said, the US government won’t be able to print enough money to overcome the deflationary force.
I know that sounds crazy. It feels weird to say. But the more I look at the data, the more I believe this perspective to be true: deflation is the bigger risk than inflation.
One of the first big tests for this thesis was the tariffs last year. The market expected high inflation, but the deflationary forces prevented the high inflation from ever showing up.
The second big test of the thesis will be in the coming 2-3 months. Most investors believe inflation is going to surge higher, including CPI readings above 5% year-over-year, but measurements like Truflation suggest that CPI will remain more subdued. If we don’t see CPI fly higher, then it will be clear to those paying attention that deflationary forces are having an outsized impact on the economy.
Lastly, the third and final test of our thesis is whether we see consumer prices start to fall in a material manner. It is not good enough if consumer prices stop going up. That is nice, but it doesn’t provide the type of deflationary pressure that makes life more affordable. Flat prices only ensure life is not getting MORE unaffordable.
But if prices start to come down for the American consumer, that is when the economy could hit an economic golden age. This would allow for a high growth, low inflation environment. Quite literally, the dream of central bankers around the world.
Every American should be praying for the AI companies to usher in an aggressive deflationary force that improves affordability, while ensuring GDP growth. If we can get that done, every politician, central banker, and regulator will look like a genius.
Who cares which bureaucrat takes credit for the economic win. The American people simply want lower prices, so they can pursue economic prosperity. Let’s hope we get everything we dreamed of.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.
Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.
Bitcoin is in a bull market right now. So I sat down to breakdown the data — from institutional moves like Morgan Stanley's record ETF launch to Bitcoin's track record across 7 financial crises — and make the case for why the next all-time high is closer than most people think.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-21 20:11:20
To investors,
I believe prediction markets are going to become a much larger aspect of financial markets in the coming years. Today these markets are full of young people gambling on stupid things like what words are mentioned at a press conference, what color tie someone wears to an event, or if certain cultural events occur or not.
These types of childish markets will either be regulated away or they will fall in relevance as more traditional finance-related markets become the dominant use case.
The most interesting part of prediction markets for investors is the ability to isolate individual data points in their capital allocation strategy. Rather than having to buy indirect exposure to interest rates, prediction markets allow you to exclusively bet on what the exact interest rate will be at the next Fed meeting. Rather than buying or selling various assets in anticipation of a recession, prediction markets allow you to directly bet on whether a recession happens or not.
And prediction markets also allow you to wager capital on individual earnings report data points (ex: Tesla car deliveries) instead of having to buy a company’s stock and take the full exposure to the entire earnings report.
An obvious use case for these types of markets would be farmers who are looking to leverage prediction markets as a replacement for their current hedging or insurance strategies. Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the world, recently announced their intention to double down on commodities for these use cases.
Given my belief in prediction markets for investors, and Kalshi’s agreement in the same theme, I am excited to announce this morning that Kalshi has partnered with ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) to launch a dedicated institutional-grade research offering that will exclusively cover prediction markets.
This new product is available to any paying members of ProCap Insights, our agentic research offering. We have been using our agentic AI research system to dig through the Kalshi data over the last few days and the findings are incredibly interesting.
We have found numerous times where Kalshi traders called the bluff on Wall Street analysts and were right. We have found significantly mispriced markets on Kalshi and traditional exchanges. And we have found economic data points that were confirmed on Kalshi days before they were reported in the legacy system.
I believe the combination of agentic AI with prediction market data will help investors be better informed, while positioning them to make more money. Our team is excited about this partnership and looking forward to sharing the various insights we find.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told Reuters the following about our partnership: “prediction markets turn uncertainty about real-world events into actionable signals. We’re partnering with ProCap Financial to bring wisdom-of-the-crowds intelligence directly to financial research, so both retail and institutional investors can benefit from this data and analysis.”
You can subscribe to read the research: Click here
Our team will continue to build ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance, into a resource that helps investors make money. Please consider subscribing if you are looking for investment ideas and insights.
Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience. In this conversation, we break down why AI is creating massive shortages in chips, energy, and commodities—and what that means for inflation and markets.
We also discuss why stocks keep hitting highs despite economic pressure, how scarcity is becoming the most important investing theme, and why bitcoin could be setting up for a major move.
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Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-20 22:49:24
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To investors,
When the world experiences chaos and uncertainty, capital allocators want safe haven assets to protect their portfolio. These safe havens allow investors to weather the storm in the short-term, but also protect their capital over the long-run.
Historically, investors have looked to dollars, treasuries, and gold as the best safe haven assets. We now have new data that suggests bitcoin has taken the crown and become king of the safe haven assets.
Onramp, a bitcoin financial services firm, just published this table that shows bitcoin has outperformed other assets during the last 7 crises in financial markets:
This shows that bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold in every one of the negative financial events since 2020. It doesn’t matter if there was a global pandemic, foreign countries invading their neighbors, domestic policy decisions like tariffs, or a national banking crisis. Bitcoin’s 60 day return was the best every single time.
Now this doesn’t mean that investors should drop other assets from their portfolio and allocate all of their capital to bitcoin. That would be irresponsible. However, it does mean that investors who have zero exposure to bitcoin are doing themselves a disservice.
Buying and holding bitcoin is a prudent capital allocation strategy.
Our friends at Bitcoin Archive recently highlighted a Bitwise study that showed the probability of loss based on various holding periods. The crypto asset manager says “as time horizons grow, bitcoin losses fall off.”
The most interesting part of this analysis is that once someone has held bitcoin for at least 3 years, the probability of loss falls to under 1%. In the professional game of risk-taking, 1% probabilities may as well be 0%.
But how you buy bitcoin can drastically enhance the results. Take this video that recently went viral showing an investor who has been buying $10 of bitcoin per day for the last 7 years. He invested just over $25,000 in total, yet his portfolio is now worth more than $10 million.
If you are like me, you immediately wondered why you haven’t been dollar cost averaging on a daily basis for the last few years. Smart capital allocation works with any asset, but it delivers significant outperformance when the strategy involves deploying capital into an asset that has a 10-year compound annual growth rate near 70%.
Institutions aren’t going to dollar cost average into bitcoin on a daily basis. But they will definitely pay attention when they see it outperforming other safe haven assets during various financial crises over multiple years.
The data is overwhelming. Bitcoin is the king of safe haven assets. Only those who refuse to change their mind when presented with new information remain unconvinced.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.
Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience. In this conversation, we break down why AI is creating massive shortages in chips, energy, and commodities—and what that means for inflation and markets.
We also discuss why stocks keep hitting highs despite economic pressure, how scarcity is becoming the most important investing theme, and why bitcoin could be setting up for a major move.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
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