2026-06-17 22:51:29
To investors,
The finance industry historically separated investors into two buckets: institutional investors and retail investors. Institutions had a fiduciary duty to their capital providers and these organizations were largely thought of as “smart money.” Retail only had a duty to themselves and Wall Street largely thought of them as the suckers at the table.
I believe there is a third group of investors who are quickly taking markets by storm. I call them “Independent Investors.”
You can think of this group as the upper middle class of finance. They don’t have enough capital to qualify as an institution, nor do they have large teams of people working for them, but they are far wealthier and more sophisticated than the the traditional retail investor.
There are three aspects that qualify someone as an independent investor:
Think independently — these individuals don’t trust the mainstream media and largely get their information from X, YouTube, podcasts, newsletters and social media.
Act independently — these individuals don’t rely on financial advisors, RIAs, or wire houses. They want to control 100% of their money and win/lose based on their own decisions.
Chase independence — these individuals have convinced themselves they will not achieve their financial goals exclusively from their W2, so they view their investment portfolio as the path to financial security and independence.
These independent investors tend to be digital-natives with high income and 7 or 8-figure net worths. For example, we built Silvia to help independent investors use the latest AI technology to better manage their assets and portfolio. The average user connects more than $2.5 million in assets.
Regardless of the fact that independent investors are wealthy, sophisticated, and responsible for a growing percentage of all stock market trading volume, these individuals are still treated like second class citizens from the traditional finance players.
I want to change that. I personally believe the independent investor is going to rapidly impact financial markets, various assets, and public companies.
Because of that, I announced this morning that we are holding a conference in New York City on October 7th and 8th to bring independent investors together with public market CEOs and top macro investors.
Current speakers include:
GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen
Opendoor CEO Kaz Nejatian
22V Research’s Jordi Visser
Ondas CEO Eric Brock
EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson
RoboStrategy CEO Andrew Kang
and many, many others...
The goal with this conference is for you to hear directly from the leaders of these companies or investment firms. Meet them in-person. Ask them questions. Build a relationship. Learn from them and learn from each other.
Investing is a team sport where relationships, knowledge, and experience compounds over time. That is exactly what this conference (From The Desk Summit) is built to do.
For being loyal Pomp Letter readers, I come bearing two gifts for you:
You can use code “POMPLETTER” to get 50% off GA tickets to conference here
I am giving away 25 tickets for free to Pomp Letter readers. You can apply here to be one of the 25 winners.
So get your GA tickets 50% off or apply to get one of the 25 free tickets. I am looking forward to seeing everyone in October.
Have a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
2026-06-16 23:34:16
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To investors,
Elon Musk took SpaceX public last week. The stock has appreciated nearly 60% since the IPO, which helped the company cross the $3 trillion market cap milestone. Given this price appreciation, Elon made more money on paper yesterday than Warren Buffett has in his entire lifetime.
Yes, you read that right. Elon’s net worth increased by more than “a Warren Buffett” in the last 24 hours. Just insane. But Elon’s wealth is the least interesting story in my opinion.
The more important thing is that SpaceX just became the world’s first Mega Meme Stock.
First, to understand what is happening with SpaceX, you have to understand how the long-tail crypto market has worked for years. People would launch new coins, they would create a very low tradable float, and then they would solicit investor interest on social media. As those new investors fought over the scarce number of coins available in the market, the fully diluted value (FDV) of all coins went up substantially.
Once the price per coin reached a ludicrous level, the creator of the coin would start selling some of the previously illiquid coins they were holding. This allowed the creator to monetize the hype and momentum at valuation levels detached from reality, which would then lead to a significant drop in price for the coin. This digital game of hot potato rewarded the creator of the coin or the people who were able to time the market correctly, but it hurt the retail investors who were late to buying and slow to selling.
The reason you have to understand this situation is that SpaceX stock is benefitting from a very similar low float, high FDV scenario. In fact, experienced crypto investors identified this potential situation almost immediately and have been aggressively investing in SpaceX stock over the last few days.
X user Threadguy explains why he got interested in SpaceX stock:
“The reason that I got excited about SpaceX was, it’s the crypto strategy that we know all too well. It’s low float, high FDV on the greatest narrative of all time by the greatest bull poster of all time”
“If they launch this thing, fully diluted and everybody’s unlocked on day one, obviously you’re not touching it. But we watched in real time how Elon has structured it to push float super low at the beginning and lockups down the line.”
The Elon critics will claim this low float situation is merely another tactic from the world’s greatest entrepreneur to extract value from unsuspecting retail investors. They will screech that Elon has too much money and the stock liquidity structure should be investigated immediately by unknown organizations for unknown reasons.
But I have a different view of the situation.
SpaceX announced this morning they are acquiring Anysphere, the maker of Cursor, for approximately $60 billion in stock. This means SpaceX is buying one of the fastest growing AI companies, in one of the most important verticals (coding), for only ~ 2.5% dilution. That is a very savvy capital markets and corporate finance decision.
In addition to the Cursor acquisition, SpaceX is rumored to be considering a merger with Tesla as well. Elon recently said he thinks SpaceX would be doing more than $1 trillion in revenue by the end of the year. The only way he could get there given the current facts would be a merger with Tesla.
By having a high valuation, SpaceX reduces the dilution it would otherwise experience through a large merger with Tesla.
This brings me back to the world’s first Mega Meme Stock.
SpaceX is surging double-digit percentages every day as institutional investors, retail investors, and the media can’t look away. People would rather feel stupid for buying something that may be overvalued later, then feeling stupid for missing out. Human nature is undefeated.
The insatiable investor demand will not go to waste. Thankfully, Elon is going to use the IPO proceeds and high valuation to democratize intelligence, beam the internet down from space, colonize Mars, and invent the orbital data center industry.
The hype will be used to help humanity. He is going to turn attention and momentum into material solutions for some of the hardest problems we face. This is no different than a bubble needed to fund new industries, whether that was the Dot Com bubble, the cable bubble, the COVID bubble, the crypto bubble, or the housing bubble.
People get excited about the future and they invest their capital to help fund it being built. So SpaceX’s spectacular rise is actually a sign that Elon’s vision is more likely to occur than people originally gave him credit for.
Could SpaceX’s stock fall when insiders get their stock and are unlocked later this year? Sure, maybe. Many of those investors are long-term believers though so we may not see as much sell pressure as people think. Additionally, there is so much demand that the sell pressure will likely be eaten up quickly as investors trained to “buy the dip” do exactly that.
Lastly, I would expect Elon and SpaceX to use the increasing stock price to go on an acquisition spree. Cursor is the first one. Tesla is likely on the roadmap. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they start buying up companies or technologies related to AI, data centers, power generation, physical AI, and robotics.
Elon Musk has been clear about the future world he believes is inevitable. He has been diligently working to make it a reality for nearly 30 years. If he has the chance to consolidate resources and accelerate his timeline to achieving success, we have learned to never, ever bet against him.
I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the SpaceX IPO, orbital data centers, and the critical minerals powering the AI buildout. We also discuss the AI model wars, why Jordi thinks Sam Altman won’t be running OpenAI within a year, and how the New York Knicks playoff run connects to the future of crypto and blockchain in a world of AI and deep fakes.
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Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-06-15 22:49:20
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To investors,
The SpaceX IPO launch saw a 20% stock price increase on Friday before closing at $160 per share, which drove the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion. This is unsurprising given the rumors that the IPO was at least 4x oversubscribed. That means there was more than $300 billion of investor interest that SpaceX refrained from accepting during the fundraising process.
The other milestone achieved on Friday was that Elon Musk officially became the world’s first trillionaire. That is a very big number: $1,000,000,000,000. Twelve zeroes to be exact.
To put this amount of money in perspective, you and I are closer in wealth to Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, or Sergey Brin, than any of them are to Elon Musk.
Imagine being one of the five richest men in the world and realizing that Elon has 3x more money than you. That is insane.
But not everyone was excited for Elon Musk. In fact, there was a cast of characters publicly shaming Elon for his vast wealth. Bernie Sanders came out of swinging when he wrote:
“Elon Musk’s rise to trillionaire status is not a time to celebrate. It’s a call to action to take on the unprecedented income and wealth inequality that now exists and the greed and power of a ruling class that is destroying the social fabric of America.
Our democracy cannot survive when one man, who contributed $290 million to get Trump elected, becomes $700 billion richer since Trump’s election.
Our economy cannot sustain itself when one man owns more wealth than the bottom half of our society, when 60% of our people live paycheck to paycheck, when we have the highest rate of childhood poverty of any major nation and when our kids will have a lower standard of living than their parents.
This is not just about wealth. It’s about power. Musk and his fellow Oligarchs want it ALL.
Together, we must fight back. We can and must create an economy and a government that works for all of us, not just Elon Musk and his fellow billionaires.”
Here is the thing about Bernie’s commentary: he takes a kernel of truth and then extrapolates the conclusion out into a crazy socialist plan to confiscate private citizen’s wealth. Bernie is right that too many people live paycheck to paycheck, childhood poverty should be eradicated, and every parent wants their kid to have a better standard of living than themselves.
The problem is that Bernie doesn’t understand that capitalism is our only change to solve these problems. For example, SpaceX is creating nearly 5,000 millionaires as part of the IPO process, including cafeteria workers, welders, janitors, and other non-white collar roles.
Nvidia has created almost 30,000 millionaires who work at the company. Amazon and many other corporations are estimated to have created thousands of millionaires as well.
Whether we are talking about Elon Musk or any other private sector company, this wealth is being generated by growing the pie. Elon Musk did not need to make anyone poorer in order for him to create trillions of dollars in value for himself, his shareholders, and his employees.
More importantly, Elon has created his wealth by solving hard problems at scale. Tesla’s consumer car is one of the safest on the market, which has saved countless human lives. Combine the physical car’s safety with the innovative Full Self-Driving technology and you get a car that is objectively safer than anything else on the market.
SpaceX has not only brought down the cost of space launches, but as Bill Ackman wrote: “SpaceX and its technologies will cause an acceleration in the growth of wages and wealth creation globally, including in some of the poorest communities in the U.S. and around the world.
Access to low-cost, high speed communications everywhere will allow children around the world to be educated, families to build businesses, and life-saving medical knowledge and care to be available everywhere.”
This is the type of impact that billionaires (and trillionaires) are supposed to have. It is like a modern Batman that spends their money, time and energy trying to improve the lives of other people.
If Elon ran a non-profit, he would be hailed as the second coming of Mother Theresa for this type of positive impact. And we haven’t even talked about Neuralink helping the disabled, The Boring Company extracting people from wasted time in traffic, or the plethora of other projects he is involved in.
Now I understand that many people don’t like Elon because of politics. That is unfortunate, but that is how modern society works. Allegiances (and sometimes logic) is drawn by party affiliation. One of the big critiques of Elon from Democrats is that he wouldn’t have these companies, or the related wealth, without the help of the government. These critics insinuate that Elon got handouts in order to enrich himself.
I was not well informed on the details of what happened or didn’t happen with the government funding, so I spent time looking into it this weekend. The best explanation I found comes from @digitalsamiam when he wrote:
“Elon Musk was awarded (note: not given) cost-per-result contracts to perform a service for the US government. The total of those for SpaceX specifically is ~$22B, which includes repaid loans, state tax incentives, etc.
The deal was simple: put stuff into low earth orbit at or below a set cost. If SpaceX does it below the set cost, SpaceX keeps the difference. If it doesn’t, the company is responsible for the overrun.
End result? SpaceX & Elon lowered the cost of getting 1 kg into low earth orbit by 95-97% vs what NASA was paying previously.
And for the record, every other company around at the time was offered the same opportunity to bid on the contract - Musk/SpaceX just took it.
The handout narrative implies the taxpayer is the patron and SpaceX the dependent. The cost data shows the opposite: before SpaceX, NASA paid Russia’s Soyuz $80-86M per seat; SpaceX delivered at ~$55 million. SpaceX saved the US taxpayer $300M-$465M each year on that alone (the US sends 12-15 astronauts to space each year)
On the lunar lander, NASA estimated SpaceX’s fixed-price bid saved $20B-$30B vs the Boeing-preferred cost-plus approach.
So: SpaceX saved the US taxpayer more than the total value of contracts it earned on a single project, PLUS provided the US government with the requested services (put stuff in low earth orbit) at the best possible price.”
If this explanation is true, which it is to the best of my knowledge, then SpaceX was able to solve a hard problem at scale. The government didn’t give a handout, but rather they dangled an economic reward in front of the market for any company to capture if they could solve the stated challenge. That is how capitalism works. The entrepreneurs and companies that solve problems are given the economic reward.
This is why we need more trillionaires. The only way to make a trillion dollars is to solve an insanely hard problem at scale. You may have to solve multiple problems to reach that level of wealth. It is impossible to become a trillionaire without positively impacting millions and millions of people’s lives. You can’t inherit a trillion dollars. You can’t steal a trillion dollars. You only get a trillion dollars if you solve problems in society for millions of people.
So rather than attack people for succeeding, which is a very short-sighted and uninformed view, we should be encouraging everyone to solve bigger and harder problems. Maybe everyone can’t become a trillionaire, but almost anyone can become a millionaire by solving problems in their local community.
Grow the pie. Solve problems. Reward solutions. Celebrate success. That is how innovation, prosperity, and economic freedom are achieved. Let’s not lose sight of these hard truths.
I hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the SpaceX IPO, orbital data centers, and the critical minerals powering the AI buildout. We also discuss the AI model wars, why Jordi thinks Sam Altman won't be running OpenAI within a year, and how the New York Knicks playoff run connects to the future of crypto and blockchain in a world of AI and deep fakes.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
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BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender.
NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
2026-06-12 22:25:04
A few weeks ago I said, “Most of crypto is dead, and most of what’s left isn’t coming back.” The noise didn’t surprise me. The DMs did.
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To investors,
SpaceX, the leading space company in the world, begins trading today. The company has raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation as part of the IPO process. But the number one question investors have been asking me in recent days is “should I buy SpaceX when it starts trading?”
I dug deep into the data, so let’s unpack what I found.
The company is valued “at ~95x sales, SpaceX is going public at nearly 5x the Nvidia multiple and ~25x the S&P 500.”
That sounds expensive, right? Maybe. People have been claiming Tesla, Elon’s other company, is overvalued for almost 15 years. Since Tesla’s IPO, the stock has returned about 25,000% or approximately 40% compound annual growth rate. Not bad for a stock that was widely thought to have a catastrophic demise right around the corner.
But SpaceX is not Tesla. You can’t extrapolate the returns of one business to another. We know SpaceX has a monopoly on rocket launches. This has allowed them to service other clients, while also launching their own products into space. The most notable is Starlink, which promises to beam the internet down to consumers, where revenue is scaling aggressively inside the company.
Put aside the narrative of the company though. What does the data tell us about these types of IPOs for investors?
Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello put together the top 25 IPOs of the last 15 years and shows the median return after 1-year has been -31%. The median max drawdown from the first day closing price has been over 50%.
Not exactly the performance that people will jump out of bed for. Those numbers are for the top 25 IPOs though. If we look at all IPOs, Peter Mallouk highlights “over the last 40+ years, the average US IPO returned just 6.0% annually in its first 3 years, roughly half the return of the broader US stock market.”
At least the performance is positive, but still not outperforming the market. Steven Rattner shows this underperformance by writing “day 1 returns are big for those who get allocation, but after the open, investors usually trail the market — by -4.4% for the largest public offerings.”
So why is everyone so excited about the SpaceX IPO? Obviously Elon is a big part of the story, but there are weird data points that support the first-day interest. For example, “IPOs with negative earnings have historically delivered roughly twice the first-day return of profitable ones.”
People also love scale. It dominates headlines and drives excitement. And there is nothing bigger than SpaceX when it comes to IPOs throughout history.
This brings us to the crux of the issue — investors who are looking at history and data may choose to refrain from investing. You can’t blame them. This would be a rational view to take. History shows mega IPOs have not been kind to investor portfolios.
But this is not a random mega IPO. We are talking about Elon Musk, the greatest entrepreneur of our lifetime. He disproved the haters over and over again with Tesla. People hated it and they claimed it was overvalued. They said it would go bankrupt.
Yet Tesla continued to find success. And there are a lot of investors who are willing to wager their capital that Elon can defy the haters once again. They aren’t buying SpaceX’s current metrics and financials, but instead willing to take risk by betting on Elon and the future vision he has for the company.
I can’t fault these investors for plowing their capital into SpaceX. They are being rational from their perspective too. So this is why SpaceX’s IPO has been heavily debated. Some people are looking at numbers and others are looking at a narrative.
Both sides are being rational from their perspective. The market will ultimately be the referee. You have to decide how you want to invest. Do you follow math or do you bet on people. Neither is right or wrong. It is going to come down to your personal strategy.
Regardless of your decision, we are watching the biggest show on Wall Street. SpaceX is finally going public after 25 years. Thousands of multi-millionaires are being created in the process. This is a massive win for American capitalism, the American economy, and the broader investment community.
Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Chris Kline is the co-founder and COO of Bitcoin IRA.
In this conversation, we break down the biggest myths about bitcoin — including whether it’s too late to buy, whether it’s too volatile for retirement savings, and whether the government will ever ban it. We also discuss the strategic bitcoin reserve, quantum computing fears, and the convergence of AI and crypto.
Get Your Free After Crypto Guide Here: https://lp.bitcoinira.com/after-crypto
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world's largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-06-10 22:49:44
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To investors,
The 60/40 portfolio became the standard portfolio allocation for investors on the premise that these two assets were negatively correlated. When stocks go up, bonds go down. When stocks go down, bonds go up.
But what happens when this correlation breaks down?
The rolling 60-day stock and bond correlation has officially hit the highest level since 1999. The current correlation is approximately 0.7, which has not been seen in the last two and a half decades.
The most obvious reason this is happening is that inflation/supply-side risks have become the dominant market driver in the short term. We have disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, regional infrastructure has been degraded, and oil prices have surged higher.
These issues create higher inflation expectations. We can’t return to negative correlations until inflation expectations come down. In the meantime, there are four main ramifications to watch for:
Bonds can’t be relied on as a hedge
Market volatility will increase
Downside risk is amplified
The Fed has less options at their disposal
My big takeaway from this situation is that investors are getting hit with a double-whammy. First, they are confused why public equities keep ripping higher as part of the AI trade, which is tempting them to chase momentum and pour more capital into the popular stocks. At the same time, investors are watching bonds, the perceived hedge in their portfolio, lose its ability to protect them against a public market downturn.
Another way to think about it is that bonds are becoming ineffective at the exact moment that investors potentially need them most. Now, if you are like me and believe stocks are going much higher, you may not care about the higher correlation between stocks and bonds.
When everything is going up together, investors are becoming very rich on paper. The returns are intoxicating. People start believing they are a genius. Few people care about hedges, risk, or correlations.
But as we know, there will be a day when those things matter again.
No one knows if it will be days, weeks, months or years. But markets run in cycles. There are good times and bad times. Although I am a believer in innovation, technology, public stocks, and bitcoin, I still acknowledge that portfolio construction, especially non-correlations, are a timeless idea for a reason.
Bonds have been a horrible investment for some time. Equities have been on an incredible tear at the same time. So when both assets start moving in lockstep, that may be the time to pay extra attention.
Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
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Chris Kline is the co-founder and COO of Bitcoin IRA.
In this conversation, we break down the biggest myths about bitcoin — including whether it's too late to buy, whether it's too volatile for retirement savings, and whether the government will ever ban it. We also discuss the strategic bitcoin reserve, quantum computing fears, and the convergence of AI and crypto.
Get Your Free After Crypto Guide Here: https://lp.bitcoinira.com/after-crypto
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-06-08 22:33:08
Smart Investors are Trading Bitcoin Tax-Free1
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To investors,
The market is preparing for a ridiculous melt-up in asset prices. At least that is what history tells us is likely to happen over the next year.
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months. You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later. In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.”
This type of return would have been unfathomable just a few weeks ago when everyone was freaking out over the Iran war, but things can change rapidly in a digitally-connected world where capital and information move at the speed of light.
For example, only 34 times in history has the S&P 500 has gone down 2% in a single day following a 10%+ move over the preceding 13 weeks. Over the next 12 months, the stock market was higher 29 of the 34 times and the average return over the next year was 17%.
An easy way to see the ramifications of this volatility is through the misunderstanding of stock market returns. You will hear people constantly quote the S&P 500’s average return around 8%, but the truth is the index has done significantly better than that.
Creative Planning’s Peter Mallouk highlights “the S&P 500 has returned an average of 12% per year since 1980 and has done so despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, and often drawdowns that are much worse.”
There are various reasons for the outperformance, including persistently higher inflation, rapid innovation in the economy, and a larger number of investors with access to the stock market. Regardless of the root cause, there is incredible wealth being created by public equities and history is telling us to prepare for even better returns over the next 12 months.
Momentum is not the only thing telling us a melt-up is coming. Charlie Bilello shows “S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 25% this year.” He says “we’ve never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.”
We are seeing signs of a market melt-up outside of public equities as well. For example, Benjamin Cowen shows the bitcoin market has just hit an important bear market milestone where the supply of bitcoin held at a loss has become a larger percent of the market than the supply of bitcoin held at a profit.
He writes “you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.”
If this signal holds the historical accuracy, it would show the most pure macro asset (bitcoin) is near a bear market bottom, which would likely produce significant returns over the next 12-24 months.
Whenever I see multiple markets lining up for potential explosive returns, I start to pay attention. Add in the backdrop of Kevin Warsh stepping in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman with the explicit focus on lowering interest rates and you have all the ingredients you need for the market to melt up.
The bears will disagree, which is fine. That is how markets are made. But stocks are going higher because AI is real and the dollar is fake. There really is no other way to put it.
I hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
P.S. Go Knicks! :)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is down 50% and whether the bear market is over, why he's still buying through the dip, how AI agents will drive bitcoin adoption, and why the rotation from AI hardware to human software is the biggest investment opportunity right now.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
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